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  • # Customer Intelligence & Segmentation **Segment your book. Predict what each customer does next. Price it in dollars.** Most tools sold as "customer intelligence" are descriptive segmentation with a better chart — they tell you what your customers already did. This one segments your book, forecasts what each customer will do next, and attaches a dollar figure with a confidence range to every forecast. Input: three columns — `customer_id, date, amount`. Available from Excel, Salesforce, HubSpot, Zoho or any accounting export today, no integration project required. Full results in under two minutes at any book size, on SOC-compliant infrastructure — and free while we're in early access. --- ## The two halves, and why both matter **Segmentation is the map. Intelligence is the decision.** **The segmentation layer** answers: who are my customers, grouped so I can act? It outputs A/B/C/D tiers, RFM behavioural cells, revenue concentration (Gini), and named buckets like Champions and At-Risk. It looks backward at what already happened. **The intelligence layer** answers: what will each one do next, and what's it worth? It outputs survival probability, predicted lifetime value, migration risk, value-at-risk, contact uplift, and total book exposure. It looks forward. Both refresh nightly. Segmentation alone produces a label. A label is a classification, not a decision — which is why CRM tier fields sit unused in every company that has them. The intelligence layer converts the label into an action and a number, and it's where this product actually lives. A concrete example of the difference. Segmentation says: *"Acme is an A-account."* Intelligence says: *"Acme is worth $60,000/yr, its purchase cadence has broken, lapse probability this quarter is 35%, that's ~$21,000 at risk ($16,000–$27,000, 90% CI), and a contact this week recovers an expected $14,000 of it."* Only one of those changes what someone does on Monday. --- # For the C-suite — CEO, CFO, Founder ### What's actually broken **The board question has no defensible answer.** "How much revenue is at risk this quarter?" is currently assembled by hand, a month stale, and nobody can reconstruct how it was calculated. **Concentration risk is invisible until it detonates.** If four accounts carry 60% of revenue and two have gone quiet, that fact is hiding inside a perfectly normal-looking dashboard. **You bought reporting and hoped for intelligence.** Dashboards describe the past. Enterprise-grade predictive scoring sits behind expensive editions plus a data-science setup — structurally priced away from a mid-market business with a clean CSV. **The alternative is headcount.** A data analyst runs $90,000–$130,000 a year and still cannot recompute the entire book every night. ### What you get **One number for the board, with its working attached.** Something like: *"$340,000 at risk across 23 neglected accounts. $520,000 of upgrade upside sitting in 41 B-accounts."* Produced by `book_exposure(book_id)`, and every dollar inside it traces to a named customer, a named model, and a training date. **Concentration health as a tracked metric.** A Gini coefficient on your revenue book alongside the A/B/C/D split — "we're too dependent on our top accounts" stops being a worry and becomes a number with a trend line. **Segments built on where customers are going, not where they've been.** Tiers are assigned on *predicted* lifetime value, not last year's invoices. Telling you who **will** be cream rather than who **was** is the entire product claim. **Numbers built to survive being wrong.** Every dollar figure ships as a range with the model's real confidence — *"~$42,000 at risk ($31,000–$54,000, 90% CI)"* — never a bare point estimate. This is deliberate. A manager shown a confident "$42,000", who watches the account churn anyway and then learns it was a rough guess, stops trusting every number you've ever shown them. A range plus a reason survives the miss. **Security and compliance your procurement team can sign off.** SOC-compliant infrastructure and controls across the MCP portfolio, so the security review isn't the thing that stalls a rollout. Transaction data is personal data under most privacy regimes — consent capture, retention policy and delete-on-request are built in for GDPR and DPDP-style requirements. **Answers in under two minutes, at any book size.** Not a batch job you queue and check tomorrow. In testing, a full book scores in under two minutes regardless of how many customers are in it — so "what's at risk right now" is a question you ask during the meeting, not after it. ### What it costs today **Nothing.** The full product — every tool, every segment, the complete intelligence layer, unlimited book size — is free while we're in early access. No card, no seat count, no feature gating. We'd rather have your book running nightly and your feedback on the numbers than a purchase order. Pricing arrives later; early users get told well in advance and won't be switched off mid-quarter. --- # For VPs — Sales, RevOps, Customer Success ### What's actually broken **Reps work the accounts they like**, not the accounts that move the number, and you have no defensible way to argue otherwise on a Monday morning. **Segments don't change behaviour.** "This is an A account" tells a rep nothing about what to do today. **The highest-leverage moment is invisible.** A customer migrating between segments — a B slipping toward C, a C climbing toward B — is where one call changes the outcome. You currently learn about it from the revenue chart, one quarter late. **You can't prove coverage works.** When finance asks whether rep outreach actually retains revenue, you have anecdotes. **QBR prep is spreadsheet archaeology**, rebuilt from scratch every quarter with slightly different logic. ### What you get **A daily queue ranked by money, not by segment.** This is the most important design decision in the product. Value of contact = customer lifetime value, multiplied by the difference between the probability they stay if contacted and the probability they stay if not. An A-account that stays loyal no matter what has near-zero uplift — it does not belong at the top of anyone's call list. A B-account a single call would visibly save has high uplift and belongs at the top. Segment-ranked queues systematically spend your team's best hours on accounts that were never going anywhere. `contact_uplift()` fixes that. **Segment migration, watched nightly.** `watch_migrations(book_id)` recomputes the whole book overnight and alerts on slips and jumps. That alert list is the morning queue, delivered into Teams or Slack — not another tab nobody opens. **Fast enough to use live.** A full rescore returns in under two minutes at any book size. A rep can pull a fresh read mid-pipeline-review, and you can re-run the book after a bad month instead of waiting for the next scheduled refresh. **Growth targeting, not just save-the-churn.** `rank_uplift_targets(tier)` answers "which of my B's are most likely to reach A if we touch them," using a migration model estimated from two transition matrices: accounts your reps touched, and accounts they didn't. That same comparison is your proof to finance that coverage works. **Explanations reps believe.** `explain_tier(customer_id)` returns the whole trace — the ABC baseline, the RFM cell, the survival probability, the migration risk, the model version, the training date. A rep who reads *"recency score collapsed from 5 to 2 in 60 days"* picks up the phone. A rep handed an opaque score from a black box ignores it, and the deployment dies quietly. **Two framings from one engine.** Urgency: *"Acme is worth $60,000/yr; 35% lapse risk this quarter, so $21,000 is at risk."* Growth: *"Invest an hour in Beta Ltd and unlock $18,000 of upside."* **Book and territory exposure on tap** for QBRs, headcount arguments and comp design — computed identically every quarter, so the trend is real rather than an artifact of whoever built this quarter's spreadsheet. ### The toolset **`score_customer_book(source)`** — the full segmented ledger across the book. **`watch_migrations(book_id)`** — who moved overnight, which becomes today's queue. **`contact_uplift(customer_id)`** — who to call first, ranked by dollars. **`rank_uplift_targets(tier)`** — which B's can be grown into A's. **`value_at_risk(customer_id)`** — what neglect costs on this account. **`book_exposure(book_id)`** — the number you report upward. **`explain_tier(customer_id)`** — why, auditable and versioned. **`predict_customer_value(customer_id, horizon)`** — expected future spend over a horizon. **`data_quality_report(source)`** — dedupe and gap detection before anything is scored. --- # For agent builders — developers, ISVs, RevOps consultants ### What's actually broken **An LLM cannot fit a survival model.** It can rank a CSV once, plausibly, and be wrong in a way nobody catches. Ask twice, get two answers. Ship that to a client and you own the outcome. **Rolling your own is a trap with non-obvious failure modes.** BG/NBD maximum-likelihood fitting breaks specifically: log-Gamma overflow, flat likelihood ridges, degenerate books that converge silently to nonsense. **No audit trail means no enterprise sale.** "The model said so" ends the conversation when a client asks why an account was segmented as C. **Most vendors ship a UI, not primitives.** You need composable tools to wire into an agent, not a dashboard to iframe. ### What you get **Nine deterministic MCP tools** over a standard interface. Same input, same model version, same answer — every time. Structured outputs designed for an agent to consume, not a human to squint at. **Hardened numerics, not a thin wrapper.** Built on the `lifetimes` OSS lineage and hardened for production: parameter bounds, multi-start optimization, convergence diagnostics, golden tests, and refuse-with-reason below data thresholds. When a book is too thin or too degenerate to model, you get an explicit refusal with a reason code — not a confident hallucination your client discovers in front of their board. **Everything versioned.** `model_version` and `trained_through_date` on every response, plus the full explanation trace. Reproducible and defensible six months later. **Cross-source by design.** CSV/XLSX first, so you can demo without an OAuth dance. Dataverse Web API, Salesforce REST/Bulk, HubSpot and Zoho read-only connectors as they mature. Native CRM scoring only ever scores its own CRM; real businesses keep data in an ERP and a CRM and Excel. **Confidence intervals as first-class output.** If you're building an agent that recommends actions, you need to know when the model is guessing — and so does whoever receives the recommendation. **Sub-two-minute response at any book size.** Model fitting is the expensive part of this problem class, and naive implementations degrade badly as the book grows. Ours returns a full scored book in under two minutes in testing, independent of customer count — so you can call it inside an agent loop instead of architecting around a long-running job, a polling endpoint and a callback. **SOC-compliant infrastructure and controls** across the MCP portfolio. If you're embedding this in something you sell, your customer's security questionnaire becomes a form you fill in rather than a project you run. ### The models underneath **Layer 1** — Pareto / ABC classification plus Gini concentration. Juran / GE, 1951. **Layer 2** — RFM behavioural scoring into named segments. Hughes, 1994. **Layer 3** — BG/NBD survival modelling: probability a customer is still active, and expected future purchases. Fader, Hardie and Lee, 2005. **Layer 4** — Gamma-Gamma spend model into discounted customer lifetime value. Fader and Hardie, 2013. **Layer 5** — Markov migration and uplift, estimated from touched versus untouched accounts. Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000. **Layer 6** — Assembly, explanation trace, and versioning. Layer 4 runs a published validity check most implementations skip: the correlation between purchase frequency and average order value must be near zero, and it is tested and reported, because Gamma-Gamma is invalid without it. **For consultants:** run multiple client books, white-label the reports, and repeat the engagement shape — score the book, present the exposure, run the queue, show the migration delta at the next review. Currently free, with no cap on the number of books. --- ## Where this sits in your stack Worth being precise, because the category name invites the wrong comparison. **It is not a CDP.** It doesn't unify identity, ingest event streams, or store profiles. It reads transactions and returns decisions. **It is not a CRM replacement.** Your CRM stays exactly where it is; this reads from it and writes decisions back into your team's workflow. **It is not a BI tool.** BI describes what happened and leaves interpretation to you. This forecasts what happens next and prices it. **It is not a campaign or marketing automation platform.** It tells you who to reach and what reaching them is worth. Sending is somebody else's job. The closest honest description: **a predictive segmentation and account-prioritisation engine that sits between your transaction data and your team's daily work.** --- ## What it won't do Honesty is part of the product, so, plainly: **It doesn't model pure-subscription books out of the box.** The survival models assume non-contractual purchasing where customers can lapse silently. Subscription and renewal books need the documented renewal-mode variant — the engine says so rather than quietly mis-modelling you. **It doesn't manufacture answers from thin data.** Below the data threshold you get an explicit refusal with a reason, not a fabricated number. **It doesn't give you a single confident figure with no range.** If that's what you want, this product will disappoint you on purpose. --- ## Start in five steps 1. Export `customer_id, date, amount` from wherever it lives. 2. Run `data_quality_report(source)` to dedupe and flag gaps before anything is scored. 3. Run `score_customer_book(source)` for the full segmented ledger in one call. 4. Run `book_exposure(book_id)` for the number that goes to the board. 5. Turn on `watch_migrations(book_id)` so the nightly recompute becomes tomorrow's queue. Steps 2 through 4 take under two minutes each, whatever the size of your book. Free while in early access, with no customer limit.

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