Calendar check
calendar_check'Uptober'. 'Mondays dip'. 'Sell in May'. Any calendar claim on 34 coins, measured against chance. With seven days one has to come first, so the answer is a permutation test: the SAME returns dealt out at random hundreds of times, and how often chance alone produces a bucket that good. Plus how many times the bucket really happened - October is 279 days of bitcoin but nine Octobers - and the round-trip cost. Nine years of daily candles.
Tests whether one day of the week, month of the year or hour of the day really beats the rest for a coin. Use for seasonality claims (Uptober, Monday dips, Sell in May). For the claim about missing the market's best days use best_days_check; for when to spread an entry, averaging_in_check.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | Yes | Ticker or full pair. An unknown one comes back with the list we hold and the ones left out. | |
| calendar | Yes | day_of_week, month_of_year or hour_of_day. The hourly one exists for the 16 coins we hold hourly candles for. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| ok | No | false when we do not hold that data. Never a zero standing in for an answer. | |
| page | No | The page with these exact numbers already in. | |
| error | No | no_data when ok is false. | |
| model | No | The test, stated, including why a monthly p-value flatters itself. | |
| reason | No | Why, in one sentence, and what we do have instead. | |
| source | No | The public file these numbers come from. | |
| buckets | No | Every bucket: its name, observations, times occurred, mean, median and share of up days. | |
| history | No | From, to, days held and which tape. | |
| shuffles | No | How many shuffled worlds were tested. | |
| best_bucket | No | The best bucket by average move, named. | |
| observations | No | Moves measured across all buckets. | |
| worst_bucket | No | The other end. | |
| best_mean_pct | No | Its average move. On its own, this is the advertisement. | |
| worst_mean_pct | No | Its average move. | |
| edge_covers_cost | No | Whether the average move of the best bucket is bigger than that cost. Usually it is not. | |
| chance_best_p95_pct | No | What chance reaches in one shuffle out of twenty. | |
| round_trip_cost_pct | No | What entering and exiting once costs, so the edge can be compared with it. | |
| beats_chance_at_5pct | No | Whether that share is under 0.05. Across all 34 coins, about 5% of these come back true by chance alone, so one true answer on its own is not a finding. | |
| chance_best_mean_pct | No | What the BEST bucket of a shuffled world averages. Anything below this is less impressive than nothing. | |
| chance_matches_it_share | No | The p-value: share of shuffles whose best bucket matched or beat the real one. High means no pattern. | |
| best_bucket_happened_times | No | How many times that bucket has actually occurred. For months this is years, not days: nine Octobers is nine observations however many candles they hold, and it is the number these claims never show. |