Averaging in check
averaging_in_checkWhether spreading the entry would have helped, measured. One amount into a coin over a window (90, 365 or 730 days): all of it on day one, or equal instalments weekly or monthly. Both start the same day, move the same money and are valued on the same day, started on every day of the history. You get how often spreading ended ahead, the middle result of each, and the worst start day of each — which is what spreading actually buys and the half nobody shows. Spot tape, no fees, dead coins included.
Use for dollar-cost averaging versus lump sum on one coin. For claims about particular days or months use best_days_check or calendar_check; for the fall after a single buy, drawdown_check.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | Yes | Ticker or full pair. An unknown one comes back with the list we hold and the ones left out. | |
| days | Yes | The window, in days: 90, 365 or 730. | |
| instalments | Yes | How often a slice goes in: weekly or monthly. Defaults to weekly. | weekly |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| ok | No | false when we do not hold that data. Never a zero standing in for an answer. | |
| error | No | no_data when ok is false. | |
| model | No | The assumptions, stated: cash not yet in earns nothing (against spreading), no fees (in favour of spreading). | |
| reason | No | Why, in one sentence, and what we do have instead. | |
| source | No | The public file these numbers come from. | |
| starts | No | Start days tested. Fewer than 120 and we refuse to give a percentage. | |
| instalments | No | How many slices fit in the window. | |
| spreading_won | No | Start days on which spreading it out ended ahead. A count, not a rate: «100%» is only said when it was all of them. | |
| p05_spread_pct | No | The same for spreading. | |
| p05_lump_sum_pct | No | Fifth percentile of starts, lump sum: one worst day is an anecdote. | |
| worst_spread_pct | No | The same for spreading. This pair is the whole argument for averaging in, and it is the one that never appears next to the advice. | |
| median_spread_pct | No | Middle start, spread out. | |
| spreading_won_pct | No | The same as a share of starts. | |
| median_edge_points | No | Percentage points spreading made over lump sum in the middle case. Negative means lump sum won. | |
| worst_lump_sum_pct | No | The single worst start day, all in on day one. | |
| median_lump_sum_pct | No | Middle start, all in on day one. | |
| share_in_profit_spread_pct | No | The same for spreading. | |
| share_in_profit_lump_sum_pct | No | Share of starts that ended up, lump sum. |