rule_backtest
Replay one fixed, published rule over resolved Polymarket markets from a derived store of on-chain daily closes: favorite_hold (buy the side at or above p on its first such day), longshot_hold (buy the side at or below p), late_entry (buy the favourite N days before the end date) or momentum_1w (buy in the direction of a one-week move). Pick a category (an event tag) and a date range; you get hit rate, mean and median return, drawdown, Brier score, a calibration table by entry price, results by year, a sample of matched markets and the exact method. Deterministic, no LLM, no buyer code. History, not a prediction; informational only. Price $0.25 per call, paid with USDC over x402.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| to | No | YYYY-MM-DD, last resolution day | |
| from | No | YYYY-MM-DD, first resolution day | |
| rule | Yes | the rule to replay (see the route description) | |
| category | No | "all" or an event tag with at least 200 resolved markets | |
| threshold | No | favorite_hold 0.55–0.99, longshot_hold 0.01–0.45, momentum_1w 0.02–0.50 | |
| min_volume_usd | No | 1000–10000000 | |
| days_before_end | No | late_entry only: 1–60 |