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metaculus_question_forecast_history

Read-only

Fetch public forecast-history points for one Metaculus question id; method selects recency_weighted, unweighted, or single_aggregation. Use metaculus_question_forecasts for current aggregate forecasts or metaculus_question for question details.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
idYesMetaculus question or post id.
methodNoAggregation method. Allowed values: recency_weighted, unweighted, single_aggregation.
max_pointsNoMaximum history points to return.

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
dataYesThe tool result payload (shape varies per tool; see each tool's docs resource).

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.2/5.0
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and openWorldHint=true, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds the useful 'public' qualifier but says nothing about pagination, result caps, or whether history is truncated, so it adds only modest value beyond structured data.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two well-formed sentences with zero waste; the core operation and its required id are front-loaded ahead of the routing guidance.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

An output schema exists, so return-value explanation is unnecessary, and annotations cover safety. The definition is complete enough to invoke correctly, though it could say a little more about what distinguishes a history point from a current forecast.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all three parameters, including the method enum values. The description restates the method options but adds no syntax, defaults, or interaction details beyond what the schema provides, so the baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb ('Fetch') and resource ('public forecast-history points') scoped to 'one Metaculus question id'. It also implicitly distinguishes itself from the sibling that returns current aggregates, so an agent can tell what this returns without opening the schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly routes the agent: 'Use metaculus_question_forecasts for current aggregate forecasts or metaculus_question for question details.' This names two alternatives and the condition that selects each, leaving nothing to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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