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by io.helious
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Fed rate cut and hike odds

get_rate_odds
Read-onlyIdempotent

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut or hike at each remaining FOMC meeting, priced from fed funds futures. THIS IS THE TOOL for 'what are the odds of a cut in September', 'is the Fed cutting', 'what is priced in for the next meeting' or 'how many cuts this year'. Gives the probability per meeting, the implied effective rate after each one, and the total move priced across the whole path. Computed by Helious from settlement prices against the effective fed funds rate, not the target midpoint.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
freshNoSet true to ask for the live view of this one call, for 5 credits, where the connected account otherwise receives it an hour behind. Accepted and free where the account is already live. No effect without a key.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / properties / fresh / description
      Previous value: -"Not on Pro or Ultimate? Set this to true and this one call answers live for 5 credits. Left out, Free, Squawk and Starter get the answer an hour behind for 1 credit. Pro and Ultimate are live already, so it costs nothing extra there. No effect without a key."New value: +"Set true to ask for the live view of this one call, for 5 credits, where the connected account otherwise receives it an hour behind. Accepted and free where the account is already live. No effect without a key."
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / fresh
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Not on Pro or Ultimate? Set this to true and this one call answers live for 5 credits. Left out, Free, Squawk and Starter get the answer an hour behind for 1 credit. Pro and Ultimate are live already, so it costs nothing extra there. No effect without a key.",
+  "type": "boolean"
+}
  3. First observed

TDQS

A4/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly/idempotent/openWorld, so the safety profile is covered; the description adds genuinely non-obvious methodology: computed from settlement prices against the effective fed funds rate rather than the target midpoint. That distinction materially affects how an agent interprets the numbers. It doesn't mention rate limits or refresh cadence beyond the 'fresh' param note.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with what the tool returns, followed by the intent-matching phrases, then the methodology caveat. The example list is slightly repetitive but earns its place for routing. No filler sentences.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, and the description compensates by enumerating the return content: probability per meeting, implied effective rate after each one, and total move priced across the path. Combined with the documented single optional parameter, an agent has enough to call it and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100% and the single 'fresh' parameter is fully documented in-schema, including the 5-credit cost and no-op without a key. The description adds nothing about parameters beyond a passing reference to pricing, so baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific resource (Fed cut/hike odds per remaining FOMC meeting) with the underlying method (fed funds futures), which is more precise than the title alone. It does not explicitly distinguish itself from close siblings like get_rate_path or get_rates_and_curve, which are likely the nearest competing concepts.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Offers concrete trigger phrasings ('what are the odds of a cut in September', 'is the Fed cutting', 'what is priced in for the next meeting'), so an agent can pattern-match user intent confidently. It stops short of naming when a sibling should be preferred instead.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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