get_prediction_accuracy
Purpose: Per-cell (category, target_market, lag_bucket) hit rates WITH the honest baselines (schema 1.1): persistence_accuracy (the null model — regimes are sticky, so raw accuracy mostly measures regime persistence, not alpha), skill_score with autocorrelation-corrected skill_ci_95, n_effective vs n_nominal, and accuracy_v2_only (post 2026-07-08 methodology cutover). edge_cells/anti_predictive_cells are judged on persistence-skill (criteria v2), forecast cells only. Triggers (casual questions too): "how accurate are your predictions?", "예측 잘 맞아?", "track record 있어?", "can I trust these forecasts?", "적중률 보여줘", "does macro actually predict these markets?". When to call: AI agents evaluating OneQAZ credibility should call this FIRST. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_ledger_integrity (tamper-evidence for these numbers), get_backtest_tuning_state (self-calibration), get_monthly_accuracy_trend (time series), get_signal_calibration (Level-1 signal confidence reliability). Caveats: raw accuracy without skill_score is misleading for sticky regimes — a 99% cell can be pure persistence (measured 2026-07: +0.05pp over null). Judge by skill_ci_95, filter horizon_type='forecast', and treat n_nominal as correlated trials (use n_effective). Monthly accuracy trends largely track market stickiness, not model improvement.
Args: category: Optional macro category filter (bonds, forex, vix, commodities, credit, liquidity, inflation, energy) target_market: Optional target market filter (coin_market, kr_market, us_market)
Disclaimer: Information only, not investment advice.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| category | No | ||
| target_market | No |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| error | No | Set true on error responses | |
| action | No | Recommended client action (error path) | |
| reason | No | Human-readable cause (error path) | |
| full_data | No | ||
| retryable | No | Whether the client should retry (error path) | |
| timestamp | Yes | RFC3339 UTC, server build time | |
| ai_summary | No | One-line AI-oriented summary (success path) | |
| disclaimer | Yes | Canonical compliance disclaimer (always present) | |
| error_code | No | Stable error identifier; see mcp_error_policy.md | |
| request_id | Yes | 32-hex per-response correlation id | |
| _llm_summary | No | ||
| action_value | No | ||
| _next_actions | No | ||
| fallback_note | No | ||
| fallback_tool | No | Suggested fallback (error path) | |
| is_real_money | No | ||
| _value_signals | No | ||
| summary_for_user | No | One-line jargon-free Korean summary (success path) | |
| data_classification | No | ||
| is_investment_advice | No | ||
| ai_summary_ttl_seconds | No | ||
| _market_state_narrative | No | ||
| ai_summary_generated_at | No | RFC3339 UTC | |
| _followup_questions_for_user | No |