Forecast an ecommerce business by cohort
ecommerce_forecast_computeUse when the user wants an ecommerce or DTC forecast built on customer cohorts: each month's new customers become a cohort that reorders along a retention curve, and the forecast adds the cohorts up into orders, revenue, cost of sales, marketing spend, operating income, contribution margin per order and the website traffic needed. The retention curve is either overall, built from a churn rate per repeat cycle and the cycle length (retentionCurveSource "calculated from the churn rate and repeat cycle inputs", the default), or a cohort curve entered directly: set retentionCurveSource to "manual input" and pass manualRetentionCurve, orders per new customer by month since the first order (month 1 is the first order, usually 1; 0.3 in month 4 means 30 of every 100 customers order again that month; up to 120 values, missing months are 0). Use the entered curve whenever the user describes retention month by month or has cohort data. Returns each line by month, the retention curve used (all 120 months), lifetime orders per customer and LTV. Runs the same math as Hemrock's Ecommerce Forecasting Tool spreadsheet, checked against the workbook. Send inputs with only what the user gave you; everything else takes the model's defaults, and the result echoes every input used, so tell the user which defaults mattered. Set months (12 to 120, default 48) for the length of the forecast; monthly results are arrays with one value per month, month 1 first, and the totals cover the same months. LTV counts at most ltvMonths months of a customer's life (1 to 120, default 60), whatever the forecast length. The result includes webUrl: give it to the user, because it opens this exact model in Hemrock's web version, where they can change any input and download the live Excel workbook. Free: signed in it uses no calculations; without an account it counts toward a few free runs a day.
Tool call template
This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {},
"name": "ecommerce_forecast_compute"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| inputs | No | The model inputs. Send only what differs from the defaults; anything left out takes its default. |