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probability_history

Probability time series for a market with key-move detection. Hourly or daily blended probability series (per-venue series included where listed) with volume, plus key_moves: buckets where the blend moved at least 5 points. Useful for charting and for change-point context before paying for realtime reads. [HTTP: GET /v1/history/:slug · price $0.05 via x402 · docs https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.history]

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
toNo
fromNo
slugYes
granularityYesday

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries the full burden and does so well: it defines the returned structure (blended series, per-venue series, volume, key_moves buckets at >=5 point moves) and discloses the cost model ($0.05 via x402, HTTP GET). It omits pagination, maximum retrievable range, and rate limits, which keeps it from a 5.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well front-loaded: the core purpose leads, then output contents, then usage hint, with the HTTP/cost/docs footer bracketed separately. Dense but every sentence carries information; the parenthetical per-venue qualifier is slightly hedged but not wasteful.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a 4-parameter tool with no output schema and no annotations, the description conveys return shape, key_moves semantics, resolution options, and cost. The only real gap is the unexplained from/to date range, which an agent would need to set correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 0%, so the description should compensate. It explains granularity ('hourly or daily') and implies slug ('for a market'), but the 'from' and 'to' date parameters are never mentioned, leaving half the parameters undocumented anywhere. This is a partial compensation, warranting the baseline 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource: 'Probability time series for a market with key-move detection', then immediately specifies the resolution ('hourly or daily blended probability series') and the payload ('volume, plus key_moves'). This is distinguishable from siblings like probability_get (realtime) and the various probability_movers/board tools without opening any schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides clear context: 'Useful for charting and for change-point context before paying for realtime reads', which implicitly routes the agent toward this instead of the realtime read tool. It stops short of an explicit when-not or a named alternative tool, so it is strong but not fully prescriptive.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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