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edge_weather-markets

Model-vs-market divergence across every parseable weather prediction market. Compares our weather model's event probability with the market-implied probability for every weather-linked prediction market we can parse, ranked by divergence with direction, model confidence (from ensemble spread), and market liquidity. parse_coverage reports how much of the weather catalog is covered. Signals are emitted only for market classes that pass our public calibration gate (free at /v1/edge/calibration). [HTTP: GET /v1/edge/weather-markets · price $0.15 via x402 · docs https://x402-factory.com/docs/edge.weather-markets]

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitYes
hazardNoFilter signals to one hazard class
regionNoMatch against city region (e.g. northeast) or question text
min_divergenceNo

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries the full burden and does well: it discloses that results are ranked by divergence with direction, that confidence derives from ensemble spread, that liquidity is included, that parse_coverage reports catalog coverage, and that signals only emit for classes passing a public calibration gate. It also exposes the transport (HTTP GET) and cost ($0.15 x402), which is useful behavioral context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The core purpose is front-loaded in the first sentence, followed by supporting detail, with transport metadata bracketed at the end. It is dense but every sentence carries information; no filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a tool with no output schema and no annotations, the description is reasonably complete: it explains what is returned (divergence, direction, confidence, liquidity, parse_coverage) and the gating condition. The remaining gaps are the undocumented parameters and the absence of alternative-tool routing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters2/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is only 50%, so the description should compensate for undocumented parameters, but it adds no meaning for limit, min_divergence, or region beyond the schema. Only hazard carries a schema-level description. The ranking-by-divergence phrasing loosely touches min_divergence but never defines it.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a precise verb and resource: it compares the model's event probability against the market-implied probability for weather-linked prediction markets, ranked by divergence. An agent immediately knows the deliverable (divergence signals). It does not, however, explicitly differentiate itself from close siblings like edge_weather-markets-delayed, leaving the real-time-vs-delayed distinction to inference.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

There is no explicit when-to-use guidance, no statement of when NOT to use it, and no named alternative. The calibration-gate sentence describes an emission condition rather than helping an agent choose this tool over edge_calibration, edge_detail, or edge_weather-markets-delayed.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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