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xkcd

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes well beyond the readOnlyHint/idempotentHint annotations by disclosing caching behavior ('Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs'), diagnostics for empty segments ('why a segment is empty'), edge calculation nuances (edge_pp_net after slippage, Kelly caps at 0.25), and design caveats (Fed bets excluded, rare-by-design for concentrated longshots). This substantial extra context helps agents predict tool behavior accurately.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but dense with information, systematically covering purpose, segments, per-opportunity fields, knobs, and diagnostics. It is front-loaded with the core value proposition and every sentence adds needed detail for a complex tool with 9 parameters and a rich response structure. No redundant or vague phrasing.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Without an output schema, the description carries the burden of explaining return values. It details the top-level structure (by_segment, fed_candidates/fed_note, _diagnostics), enumerates per-opportunity fields (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, market.liquidity, etc.), and explains why segments might be empty. This is thorough for a read-only scanning tool, covering caching, filtering, and edge cases.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema covers 100% of parameters, so the baseline is 3. The description adds practical value by explaining the rationale for tradeable-edge knobs (e.g., 'Set to 2 to require tight books'), noting the usual slippage magnitude (20-50bp), and clarifying that min_kelly does not apply to partition arbs. These insights go beyond the schema's field descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific action: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' This clearly states the verb, resource, and outcome. It also distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage by emphasizing the Pipeworx data disagreement rather than generic arbitrage scanning.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states its intended use: 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets.' This gives clear context for when to use it. However, it does not explicitly name alternative sibling tools or provide when-not-to-use guidance, so it misses the top tier.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, entity_profile, compare_entities, and validate_claim all serve data-lookup purposes with unclear boundaries. The three xkcd comic tools are distinct but are buried under 31 unrelated tools, making selection confusing.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names follow no consistent pattern: some use verb_first (get_comic, list_subscriptions), some are nouns (entity_profile, deep_research), some have prefixes (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*), and others are vague (scan_dependency, generate_llms_txt). The mixing of styles across the set makes it hard to predict naming.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools and a server name of 'xkcd', the count is wildly disproportionate; only 3 tools relate to comics. Even as a general data-access server, 34 tools is heavy and many are meta-tools (discover_tools, suggest_questions) that add bulk.

Completeness3/5

For the actual Pipeworx data domain, the surface is fairly comprehensive: querying, grounded answers, research, entity profiles, comparisons, validation, subscriptions, and prediction-market analysis are covered. However, there are notable gaps like no fetch-by-URI tool and no xkcd search/list capability, making the set incomplete for its name and slightly incomplete for its inferred domain.

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