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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnly/idempotent open-world annotations, the description discloses many non-obvious behaviors: compatibility_codes semantics, pairing_unverified being set whenever pairs are returned, unclassified legs never being paired, null temporal_alignment meaning 'could not be computed' rather than 'aligned,' and fees being gross rather than net tradeable edge. This is rich, useful behavioral context with no contradiction to annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but front-loaded with the core purpose and modes before going into safety details and response fields. Most sentences carry unique operational information, and there is no fluff. It could be tightened, given its density, but the length is largely justified by the complexity of the output and compatibility semantics.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description carries the full burden of explaining return values. It enumerates the response components: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility_warning/codes, skipped counters, temporal_alignment, fees_note, and per-entry flags. It also explains null semantics and the meaning of each compatibility code. This is more than enough for an agent to understand what the tool returns and how to interpret it.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

All three parameters already have clear descriptions in the schema (100% coverage), so the baseline is 3. The description adds context about how the parameters combine—topic fetches a preset, explicit ticker/slug overrides the mapped side—and lists the valid topic values, but this is largely redundant or supplemental rather than essential. No parameter is left unexplained, but the description does not add substantial semantic depth beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a precise statement of function: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It names the two venues, the comparison being made, and the underlying concept of price deltas on equivalent outcomes. It is clearly distinguishable from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges because it emphasizes the cross-venue, same-question comparison.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit mode selection guidance: topic mode for pre-mapped shortcuts, explicit mode for custom ticker/slug pairings, and clarifies that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility warnings and that 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' However, it does not explicitly contrast this tool against sibling tools for when one should be preferred over the other.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but there is some overlap (e.g., ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence are related; memory tools remember/recall/forget form a clear subgroup). Descriptions are detailed enough to differentiate, but the broad scope may cause occasional mis-selection.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is inconsistent: some tools use verb_noun (list_accounts, get_profit_and_loss), others are single words (forget, recall), and some use snake_case with mixed verbs (ai_visibility_check, ask_pipeworx, bet_research). No uniform pattern makes the set harder to navigate.

Tool Count3/5

25 tools is high but not extreme given the broad scope (accounting, betting, data queries, npm, memory, etc.). However, the server tries to cover too many domains, making it feel bloated. Each tool is individually useful, but the count is borderline excessive for coherence.

Completeness2/5

The Xero accounting subset is incomplete: only list and get operations, no create/update/delete for invoices, contacts, or accounts. Other domains (betting, npm) are covered well, but the core accounting purpose has significant gaps that will hinder agents.