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Worms

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description richly details behavioral traits beyond annotations: resolver contract with match confidence, parent event extractor, news fallback handling, safety short-circuits for low-confidence and closed markets, liquidity warnings, cancellation rules, and response shapes. Annotations already declare readOnly, idempotent, openWorld, non-destructive, but the description adds extensive context that an agent needs to use the tool safely and correctly. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but front-loaded with a clear summary sentence. Every section adds necessary detail for a complex tool. The structure could be improved with sections or bullet points, but it is still efficient and not wasteful. Minor point off for density.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple input types, fan-out logic, response shapes, edge cases, safety mechanisms) and the absence of an output schema, the description is remarkably complete. It covers inputs, process, outputs, error states, and warnings. An agent can understand all important aspects without additional documentation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

All three parameters have descriptions in the schema (100% coverage). The description adds value by explaining input formats for the 'market' parameter, the trade-off for 'depth' with examples, and the purpose of 'include_raw' with guidance. This extra context justifies a score above the baseline of 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: research a Polymarket bet by resolving, classifying, and fanning out to data sources. It uses specific verbs like 'research', 'pull', 'resolve', 'classify', and 'fan out'. However, it does not explicitly differentiate from sibling tools like 'polymarket_edges' or 'polymarket_arbitrage', so it loses a point.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit use cases: 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', 'is there edge in Z'. It also gives examples of fan-outs for different bet categories. However, it does not specify when NOT to use this tool or suggest alternative tools for edge detection, so it is not a full 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have functionally overlapping purposes, most notably ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta, which currently behave identically. The many prediction-market tools are each distinct but still leave boundaries that require careful reading, and the query/research tools (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, potentially validate_claim) have an ease of being confused. Fine verbal descriptions reduce but do not eliminate the ambiguity for an agent.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase snake_case and many follow a verb_noun pattern, such as resolve_entity, get_classification, and list_subscriptions. However, the set is inconsistent overall: it mixes single verbs (remember, forget, subscribe), noun-style names (entity_profile, recent_alerts), and several prefixed families (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*). It's readable but not a coherent, uniformly applied convention throughout.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools in one server is well beyond the generally well-scoped 3–15 range. The server appears to bundle several unrelated domains together—WoRMS taxonomy, Pipeworx data research, Polymarket analysis, memory utilities, and subscriptions—creating avoidable cognitive load and making selection more difficult. Splitting into targeted servers would greatly improve the interface.

Completeness2/5

The server is named 'Worms' and includes a WoRMS taxonomy subdomain, but that subdomain only supports searching, classification, and common names—the rest of the marine taxonomy surface is missing (e.g., direct AphiaID record lookup, distributions, synonyms, hierarchical children). The remainder of the tools serve an entirely different data-research purpose, so the server is incomplete relative to its name AND the bundled extra domains add confusion rather than a coherent cohesive coverage.

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