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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true and these are consistent with a read-only analysis tool, so there is no contradiction. The description goes far beyond the annotations: it discloses that compatibility codes can be non-empty even on returned pairs, that unclassified legs are NEVER paired, that spreads are gross (not net of Kalshi fees), and that temporal_alignment null means 'could not be computed', not 'aligned'. This is exceptionally rich behavioral disclosure.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The purpose is front-loaded in the first sentence and a clear mode/response/safety structure is visible. However, the description is very long, packing mode explanation, response format, safety codes, skipped-leg logic, fee disclosure, and feasibility warning into dense prose that interleaves topics. Every sentence earns its place — the content is genuinely useful — but the packing makes it harder to parse than it should be.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema and no required parameters, the description carries the full burden of explaining return values and edge cases — and it does so comprehensively. It covers leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility_warning/codes semantics, skipped_unclassified and low_confidence_pairs, temporal_alignment fields, the gross-vs-net fee caveat, and the skipped_cross counters. Nothing an agent needs to interpret results correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all three parameters. The description adds real value on top: it explains that topic picks from 10 pre-mapped shortcuts, that kalshi_event_ticker and polymarket_event_slug override the mapped side, and that both modes feed the identical matcher with the same disclosures. This clarifies the override relationship between topic and the explicit fields beyond bare schema text.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence states a precise verb and resource: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. This differentiates it from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges, which the title and context confirm are distinct tools, and the description's focus on same-question cross-venue comparison makes its scope unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explains two modes (topic shortcuts vs explicit ticker/slug pairings), states that both run the identical matcher, and includes a frank feasibility warning that most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today and that pre-mapped ≠ tradeable. This is strong usage guidance, though it never explicitly names sibling alternatives or states when NOT to use this tool versus a pure arbitrage or edge tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The server packs in three near-identical question-answering entry points (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta which explicitly states it 'currently matches ask_pipeworx exactly', and ask_pipeworx_grounded), plus overlapping research tools like deep_research and validate_claim — an agent can easily misroute. The Watchmode cluster also blurs title_search vs list_titles and list_titles vs releases. The very detailed descriptions save it from a 1, but the ask_pipeworx_beta duplicate is a genuine selection hazard.

Naming Consistency4/5

Everything is snake_case and the clusters follow good prefixes — title_detail/title_search/title_seasons/title_sources, polymarket_edges/polymarket_arbitrage/polymarket_fill_risk, ask_pipeworx/ask_pipeworx_beta/ask_pipeworx_grounded. Minor inconsistency: scan_competitor_ai_presence and ai_visibility_check are sibling tools but don't share a naming pattern, and the pipeworx_*/ask_pipeworx*/plain-noun (genres, sources, regions) mix is slightly uneven. Still readable and mostly predictable.

Tool Count2/5

41 tools is heavy, but the real problem is scope: only ~10 of them are Watchmode streaming tools, while the rest are a Pipeworx data-router suite, a Polymarket/Kalshi prediction-market suite, memory, subscriptions, npm scanning, and llms.txt generation. This isn't a focused Watchmode server — it's three or four unrelated product surfaces bolted together under one name. Any single coherent feature area would justify closer to 10-15 tools.

Completeness3/5

The Watchmode core is actually well covered for a read-only catalog: search, detail, seasons/episodes, source availability, releases, and directory tools (genres/regions/networks/sources) make a complete browse-to-detail flow. But the overall surface is unfocused — AI visibility, npm deps, and llms.txt have nothing to do with the apparent purpose — and several tools are gated (deep_research needs an account, ask_pipeworx_grounded costs extra, ai_visibility_check needs a BYO key), leaving dead ends for anonymous agents.