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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond annotations, detailing behavioral traits such as semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity >=0.30, partition filter dropping placeholder slugs, fill check with CLOB depth, and response fields including opportunities, partition_check, and fill check. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the main purpose and modes, but it is quite lengthy and contains technical jargon (monotonicity, partition_check). While detailed, it could be slightly more concise without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, fill check, response structure) and no output schema, the description is comprehensive. It explains the response format, fill check logic, and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, leaving no critical gaps.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema descriptions cover both parameters, the tool description adds substantial semantic detail: for event, it explains the partition check and example slugs; for topic, it explains cross-event scanning, seed questions, and semantic anchor. This significantly enriches the meaning beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks', providing a specific verb ('find'), resource ('arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket'), and method ('monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks'). This distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly explains when to use no arguments ('trending_scan'), event argument ('recommended for a specific market'), and topic argument ('for cross-event scanning'). It also provides an alternative: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk', guiding the agent to the appropriate tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

The three ask_pipeworx variants plus deep_research and validate_claim overlap heavily on the same routing capability — ask_pipeworx_beta is even explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now. The polymarket tools (arbitrage/edges/edge_tracker/fill_risk/kalshi_spread) form a second cluster with fuzzy boundaries, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap. However, most other tools (w3c_search, spec, remember/recall/forget, subscribe/unsubscribe) have clear distinct roles.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are generally descriptive snake_case with recognizable prefix families (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, w3c_*), but verb usage is inconsistent: passive labels like ai_visibility_check and entity_profile sit alongside imperatives like recall, forget, subscribe, and resolve_. There's no uniform verb_noun or noun_pattern convention across the set.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is over the heavy threshold, and the count is wildly mismatched to the server's claimed identity: the server is named 'W3c' yet only 2 of 33 tools (w3c_search, w3c_spec) relate to W3C. The remaining 31 form a sprawling Pipeworx data/prediction-market service that would justify its own server, making this aggregation incoherent.

Completeness3/5

For its actual purpose (broad data research + prediction markets), the surface is fairly complete: search, grounded answers, deep research, comparison, entity profiles, entity resolution, memory, subscriptions, and feedback cover the main workflows. But for the server's stated W3C purpose, only search and spec-detail exist with no broader standards tooling. The domain mismatch makes completeness hard to credit.