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Polymarket Fill Risk

polymarket_fill_risk
Read-onlyIdempotent

Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth. REQUIRES one of market (single-market mode) or event (basket/partition mode). SINGLE-MARKET: pass a market slug/URL + side (buy_yes|sell_yes|buy_no|sell_no, default buy_yes) + size_usd (default 1000 — max spend on buys, target proceeds on sells); walks the ladder and returns top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd, and a verdict (clean|degraded|cannot_fill). BASKET: pass an event slug/URL + side (sell_yes = capture overround by selling every leg, buy_yes = capture underround; default auto from partition sum) + size_usd interpreted as settlement notional S (shares per leg; each share pays $1); returns theoretical_sum vs realizable_sum (top-of-book vs VWAP across all legs), capture_ratio, profit_usd at executed size, per-leg fill detail, thin_legs[], max_clean_notional_usd, and forced_directional_risk naming the legs most likely to strand you unhedged. USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500 — theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills convert an arb into an unhedged directional position (the dominant loss mode in real arb-bot P&L).

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
sideNoSingle-market: buy_yes | sell_yes | buy_no | sell_no (default buy_yes). Basket: sell_yes | buy_yes (default auto — sell if partition sum > 1, buy if < 1).
eventNoBasket mode: event slug or full polymarket.com URL — checks every leg of the partition.
marketNoSingle-market mode: market slug or full polymarket.com URL.
size_usdNoSingle-market: USD to spend (buys) or target proceeds (sells). Basket: settlement notional — shares per leg, each paying $1 at resolution. Default 1000, clamp 10–1,000,000.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark this as read-only/idempotent, but the description goes far beyond: it details exactly what is computed (top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd), what the verdict means, and the specific return fields for basket mode. It discloses the risk of partial fills converting an arb into an unhedged position—a key behavioral trait not captured in annotations. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but packed with essential information for a complex tool. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and then organizes details by mode. Every sentence adds value; however, it could be slightly more scannable with bullet points for the two modes. Still, it earns a high score for density and clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool has 4 parameters, dual modes, no output schema, and important risk implications, the description is remarkably complete. It enumerates the return fields, explains the verdict categories, and warns about partial-fill dangers. It also provides usage thresholds and links to related tools. There is no significant missing context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant contextual meaning beyond the schema. It clarifies the dual-mode interpretation of size_usd (max spend on buys, target proceeds on sells, vs settlement notional for basket), explains default side selection behavior, and defines what 'market' vs 'event' means. This goes well above the structured descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a precise purpose: 'Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth.' It clearly distinguishes between single-market and basket modes, and explicitly contrasts with sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges by stating it should be used before them. The verb 'check' plus resources (market/event, order-book depth) make the function unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

This is exemplary. The description explicitly says 'USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500.' It also provides the reasoning: theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills cause unhedged directional risk. This gives clear when-to-use and which alternatives to prefer.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools overlap: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all serve as query routers, with the beta variant currently identical to the stable one. However, most other tools have clearly distinct purposes (memory, subscriptions, prediction market analytics), and the detailed descriptions help differentiate them.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names use snake_case and are descriptive, with consistent domain prefixes like pipeworx_ for meta tools and polymarket_ for prediction markets. Some names mix noun-phrase and verb-noun patterns (e.g., ai_visibility_check vs. resolve_entity), but the overall style is predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

With 31 tools, the server exceeds the 25-tool threshold for a coherent set. While the broad scope (data querying, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility) justifies many tools, the sheer number creates cognitive load and makes selection harder for agents.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface is quite comprehensive for its domains: querying has ask_pipeworx, grounded answer, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, and claim validation; prediction markets have research, arbitrage, edge tracking, and fill risk; memory and subscription lifecycles are covered. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no subscription update) but are workable.