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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses numerous behaviors beyond annotations: scanning modes, semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter, fill check (theoretical vs realizable edge), and conditions for not trading. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and long (about 200 words). While all content is relevant, it lacks structure like bullet points or separate sections, making it harder to parse quickly. It is verbose but not overly so.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, internal checks, output fields), the description covers modes, parameters, checks, return structure, and references another tool. No output schema exists, so the description compensates well.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and each parameter has a description. The description adds extensive semantics: examples of event slugs and topic seeds, how each mode works, and internal logic. This goes beyond the schema descriptions, earning a 4.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It uses a specific verb ('find'), resource ('arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket'), and methodology, distinguishing it from sibling tools like polymarket_edge_tracker.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for... or topic for...' It explains when to use each parameter and even mentions an alternative tool ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk').

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all perform overlapping routed-search functions; ask_pipeworx_beta is even documented as currently identical to ask_pipeworx. The three Polymarket discovery tools (polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk) also have blurry boundaries around finding vs. validating vs. executing on edges.

Naming Consistency4/5

Nearly all tools use snake_case with a verb_noun or descriptive pattern (ask_pipeworx, validate_claim, resolve_entity, list_subscriptions). Minor deviations exist — bare verbs like remember/recall/forget and noun_first names like bet_research or entity_profile — but the convention is largely predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is heavy, and the set spans unrelated domains: Pipeworx data routing, prediction-market trading, agent memory, subscription management, npm dependency checks, user-agent parsing, and llms.txt generation. The sub-clusters each earn their place individually, but as a single server surface the count is unjustifiably large and scattershot.

Completeness3/5

The Pipeworx research surface is quite complete (lookup, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, validation, entity resolution, discovery, feedback), and memory/subscription lifecycles are fully covered. However, the server has no coherent single domain — user-agent parsing (the server's namesake) has only one tool, while unrelated utilities like generate_llms_txt and scan_dependency appear with no supporting ecosystem.

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