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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "event"
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "topic"
-    ]
-  }
-]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "event"
+    ]
+  },
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "topic"
+    ]
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The annotations (readOnlyHint=true, destructiveHint=false) already indicate safety, but the description adds substantial behavioral context: how monotonicity/partition checks work, the Jaccard similarity threshold, placeholder filters, and the fill-check pricing against live CLOB depth. It clearly explains what happens when signals are not realizable ('do not trade it'). This is exemplary disclosure of complex behavior.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but justifiably so given the tool's complexity. It is well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded with a clear first sentence. Every sentence provides meaningful information; while it could be trimmed slightly, the density of valuable content earns a high score.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully explains the response structure: opportunities[] fields and partition_check object in event mode. It also covers edge cases (low similarity, placeholder fractions, thin legs) and explicitly states the realizable edge condition. For a complex tool, this is a thorough and complete description.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description enriches meaning far beyond the schema's field descriptions. It explains `event` with example slugs and full behavior (walks child markets, performs ordering checks and partition check), and `topic` with seed examples and the cross-event flattening process. The description adds value that the schema alone would not convey.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description uses a specific verb + resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes itself from siblings by explaining the three invocation modes (no args, event, topic) and what each does. This goes well beyond a vague purpose and uniquely identifies the tool's niche.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit usage guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for... or topic for...' and even directs custom sizing to polymarket_fill_risk. It does not explicitly mention alternatives like polymarket_edges or when NOT to use this tool, but the context is clear and the mode distinction is strong.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have clearly distinct purposes (e.g., ask_pipeworx for general queries, ask_pipeworx_grounded for high-stakes verification, deep_research for multi-faceted research). However, some overlap exists among the ask_* variants and the prediction-market tools (bet_research vs. polymarket_edges vs. polymarket_arbitrage), which could cause misselection without careful reading of the detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names consistently use snake_case and mostly follow the verb_noun pattern (e.g., list_subscriptions, resolve_entity, validate_claim). Minor deviations like random_fact and today_fact (adjective_noun) and pipeworx_feedback (noun_noun) introduce slight inconsistency, but the overall pattern is predictable.

Tool Count3/5

With 33 tools, the count exceeds the typical 3-15 range and even the 16-25 'heavy' threshold. While the server covers an unusually broad domain (data retrieval, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility), several tools could be consolidated (e.g., the six polymarket tools, trivial random_fact/today_fact). The scope partially justifies the count, but it feels over-provisioned.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface is remarkably comprehensive for a data platform: it covers querying, entity resolution, comparison, change feeds, memory persistence, subscription management, validation, and even meta-tool discovery. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no explicit update/delete for external data, but that is not the service's purpose). Overall, no obvious dead ends.

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