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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive, and the description fully complements this by disclosing significant behavioral nuances: gross vs net spreads, unmodeled Kalshi fees, temporal alignment uncertainty, compatibility code semantics, skipped-unclassified legs, and the fact that returned pairs are keyword-matched rather than resolving-source-verified. No annotation contradiction exists.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is well-structured with labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, codes, fees_note, skipped counters) and front-loads the core purpose. Every section carries substantive operational or interpretational guidance. Some redundancy and density makes it less concise than ideal, but the structure compensates for the length.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining return semantics, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility_warning vs compatibility_codes, per-entry flags, temporal_alignment fields, skipped counters, and fee limitations. It also covers edge cases such as unknown metric types never being paired and temporal_alignment null meaning uncomputed, not aligned. This is highly complete for a complex analytical tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the schema already documents the topic values and override behavior. The description adds meaningful context beyond the schema, such as the fact that both modes use an identical token-overlap matcher, that explicit params override the topic-mapped side, and that the same disclosures apply in both modes. This is useful but not dramatically beyond what the schema already supplies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a precise statement of what the tool does: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It also distinguishes the two modes (topic shortcuts vs explicit event pairings). However, it does not explicitly differentiate this tool from closely related siblings like polymarket_arbitrage, leaving some differentiation to the name and context.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear invocation guidance: use topic shortcuts for pre-mapped macros, or provide explicit ticker/slug pairings for custom comparisons, and notes that both modes run the same matcher. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics return compatibility warnings and that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable. It does not explicitly state when to prefer this tool over sibling alternatives, but the mode-selection guidance is strong.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes (e.g., ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded all serve similar query routing). Tools from unrelated domains (UK Gazette, Polymarket betting, AI visibility checks) are mixed together, making it hard for an agent to distinguish which tool to use for a given task.

Naming Consistency1/5

Naming is chaotic: some tools use descriptive phrases with underscores (gazette_deceased_estates, polymarket_arbitrage), others use generic verbs (remember, recall, forget), and some include version or mode indicators (ask_pipeworx_beta, scan_competitor_ai_presence). No consistent pattern across the set.

Tool Count2/5

With 36 tools, the server is overstuffed for its purported focus on the UK Gazette. The majority of tools (Polymarket, Pipeworx general, AI visibility, etc.) are unrelated to the server's name, making it feel like a bundling of many services into one, which is excessive for a coherent tool set.

Completeness2/5

For a server named 'Uk Gazette', there are only a handful of Gazette-specific tools (gazette_search_notices, gazette_insolvency_notices, etc.), while the rest cover unrelated domains. This leaves obvious gaps for Gazette-related tasks (e.g., no tool for searching particular notice types or filtering by edition), despite the large tool count.