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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, non-destructive behavior, which is consistent with the description. The description adds rich behavioral context: monotonicity violations, partition checks, fill check using live depth, and conditions for rejecting trades (thin legs, realizable edge ≤ 0).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is fairly long but well-organized, with a clear front-loading of purpose, followed by mode explanations, then technical details. Every sentence adds distinct value, though a minor reduction in verbosity could improve conciseness.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array, partition_check details) and provides crucial usage context (fill check, similarity filter, placeholder filtering). It also references a related tool for custom sizing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema descriptions cover 100% of parameters, but the tool description adds significant contextual value: explains the difference between event and topic modes, provides examples of valid inputs (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026'), and describes how each mode works internally.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via specified techniques and distinguishes between three modes (no args, event, topic). It lacks explicit differentiation from sibling tools but is sufficiently specific.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly guides when to use each mode (no args for trending scan, event for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning). Provides recommendation for event mode and warns when not to trade via fill check, with a pointer to an alternative tool for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools blur together: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer questions over the same data, and five polymarket_* tools overlap on edge detection and arbitrage. Descriptions help somewhat, but the boundaries are subtle and the server name 'Uk Food Hygiene' adds a layer of confusion.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase snake_case, but conventions vary widely: brand-style names (ask_pipeworx, pipeworx_feedback), noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_changes), verb_noun pairs (list_subscriptions, validate_claim), and bare verbs (recall, forget). It is readable but does not follow one predictable pattern.

Tool Count1/5

A server named 'Uk Food Hygiene' has 33 tools, of which only two (uk_food_hygiene_search, uk_food_hygiene_details) relate to food hygiene. The rest are a grab-bag of Pipeworx platform utilities, prediction-market tools, memory helpers, and subscription features — an extreme mismatch between count and stated scope.

Completeness2/5

The two food hygiene tools cover search and detail lookup, which handles the core use case, but the broader tool surface has notable gaps: citation URIs are returned but no fetch/read tool exists, and the unrelated domains (prediction markets, company research, AI visibility) are deep in some places and absent in others. The overall surface feels like an incoherent collection rather than a complete domain toolkit.