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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds substantial behavioral context beyond the read-only/idempotent annotations: it discloses that Kalshi fees are not modeled, that spreads are gross rather than net tradeable edges, that null temporal alignment means 'could not be computed' rather than 'aligned', and that compatibility warnings may be non-empty even when pairs are returned. It also explains the skipped/unclassified leg behavior. This is exemplary transparency.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well organized with clear labeled sections (RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, Codes) and is front-loaded with the core purpose and modes. Most sentences carry substantive safety or matching information. It earns its length for a complex comparison tool, though it is not as lean as it could be.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the complexity of the tool, the absence of an output schema, and the many caveats around matching and compatibility, the description is essentially self-sufficient. It covers response structure, safety fields, code semantics, fee limitations, skipped-leg behavior, and temporal alignment meanings. An agent has enough context to call the tool and interpret results correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

With 100% schema description coverage, the baseline is 3, but the description adds meaningful interaction semantics: it explains that topic mode auto-fetches matching events, explicit ticker/slug mode is for custom pairings, and both modes run identical matchers with the same disclosures. This clarifies how the three optional parameters relate to each other beyond the schema's individual descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a precise statement of what the tool does: it reports the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It goes on to specify the two invocation modes and the matching logic, which clearly separates it from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges. The scope is specific enough that an agent can tell what this tool uniquely contributes.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives strong contextual guidance: it explains when to use topic mode versus explicit ticker/slug mode, states that both modes run the same matcher, and warns that pre-mapped topics frequently return compatibility warnings and are not automatically tradeable. It does not, however, explicitly name sibling tools as alternatives or state precise when-not-to-use conditions, so it stops short of full alternative routing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy nearly identical roles (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools), and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly the same router as ask_pipeworx. Company-data tools (entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, validate_claim) and the Polymarket family also overlap heavily, making selection error-prone despite detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency5/5

Tool names are consistently lowercase snake_case with a verb_noun pattern (search_notices, get_notice, find_a_tender_recent, validate_claim). Even longer names like polymarket_edge_tracker and ask_pipeworx_grounded follow a predictable style with no camelCase or mixed conventions.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is already excessive for a focused server, and the 'Uk Contracts' name covers only five of them (search_notices, recent_notices, get_notice, find_a_tender_recent, find_a_tender_notice). The remaining 31 are unrelated Pipeworx/Polymarket/AI-marketing utilities, so the count badly mismatches the apparent scope.

Completeness4/5

For UK public procurement, the five relevant tools provide search, recent listing, and full-detail retrieval for both Contracts Finder and Find a Tender Service, covering the core workflows well. Minor gaps include no tender-specific alert/subscription support and no server-side keyword search for the high-value FTS feed.