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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already provide readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint. The description adds practical behavioral details: skipping low similarity (≥0.30 Jaccard), dropping placeholder slugs, fill check against CLOB depth. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with core purpose and key decision points. However, the description is lengthy with detailed technical explanations (Jaccard threshold, placeholder fraction) that could be streamlined without losing value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description thoroughly documents return fields for opportunities and partition_check, including fill check details. Covers all modes and edge cases, making the tool's behavior and output fully understandable.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but description adds crucial context: event parameter accepts slugs or full URLs, topic expects a seed question. Explains how each parameter changes tool behavior and output. Exceeds baseline of 3 by providing actionable examples and semantic guidance.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks on Polymarket. It distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and names sibling tools like polymarket_edges, making its unique function clear.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly guides when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. It also explains when cross-event mode is beneficial and includes a fill check advisory ('do not trade it' when realizable edge is ≤0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy nearly identical roles (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools), and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly the same router as ask_pipeworx. Company-data tools (entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, validate_claim) and the Polymarket family also overlap heavily, making selection error-prone despite detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency5/5

Tool names are consistently lowercase snake_case with a verb_noun pattern (search_notices, get_notice, find_a_tender_recent, validate_claim). Even longer names like polymarket_edge_tracker and ask_pipeworx_grounded follow a predictable style with no camelCase or mixed conventions.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is already excessive for a focused server, and the 'Uk Contracts' name covers only five of them (search_notices, recent_notices, get_notice, find_a_tender_recent, find_a_tender_notice). The remaining 31 are unrelated Pipeworx/Polymarket/AI-marketing utilities, so the count badly mismatches the apparent scope.

Completeness4/5

For UK public procurement, the five relevant tools provide search, recent listing, and full-detail retrieval for both Contracts Finder and Find a Tender Service, covering the core workflows well. Minor gaps include no tender-specific alert/subscription support and no server-side keyword search for the high-value FTS feed.