Updown Divergence Rate
updown_divergence_rateHow often two venues settled the SAME 15-minute crypto window differently, over every settled window on record. Compares polymarket.com (Chainlink TWAP) with Kalshi and with Polymarket US (both CF Benchmarks BRTI), and Kalshi with Polymarket US as the same-feed control. Per pair: windows both venues settled, divergent count, the rate with its 95% Wilson interval (withheld under 30 paired windows), which direction they split, and what was excluded (unsettled on a side, 50-50). A HEADLINE RATE IS A CONCENTRATION QUESTION, so every pair also carries concentration (UTC days and hours the divergent windows fell in, the busiest day, the top-3-day share, and a plain reading) and by_how_decided (the rate by how far the reference venue's mid was from 50 at its last priced minute: the rate is a fraction of a percent for windows that were decided by the end and tens of percent for the ones that were not). divergent_path gives the mean Up mid by minute on both venues over the divergent windows only, split by who said Up, so the "early spike that fades" story can be checked rather than assumed. Measured on the archive 2026-10-27 over 30 days of btc: polymarket.com vs Kalshi diverged on 48 of 2,847 windows (1.69%, interval 1.27-2.23), spread over 27 of 31 UTC days, 0.19% of windows decided by the end and 17-29% of the ones still undecided; Polymarket US vs Kalshi on 0 of 1,838. asset btc | eth | sol | xrp | bnb (bnb has no pair: Kalshi only); days 1-90 (default 30), capped by what the archive holds (it starts 2026-09-22 for polymarket.com and Kalshi, 2026-10-07 for Polymarket US). Read-only; cheap enough to call, it reads several thousand archive rows.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| days | No | Look-back in days, 1-90 (default 30). The archive starts 2026-09-22 (polymarket.com, Kalshi) and 2026-10-07 (Polymarket US, btc), so a longer span is capped by what is held; coverage is reported per pair. | |
| asset | No | btc (default) | eth | sol | xrp | bnb. The archive holds btc/eth on all three venues, sol/xrp on polymarket.com and Polymarket US, bnb on Kalshi only (no pair). |