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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already establish a safe read-only/idempotent profile, and the description adds substantial behavioral disclosure beyond that: compatibility_warning and compatibility_codes can be non-empty even on returned pairs, the gross-vs-net fees_note caveat, skipped_unclassified handling, and the explicit statement that legs with unknown metric_type are never paired. This gives the agent an accurate mental model of the matcher's limitations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is densely packed with necessary caveats and safety disclosures, and it is structurally organized (modes → response → safety fields → codes → fees → caveats). A few phrases are repeated for emphasis (e.g., 'in EITHER mode'), but every paragraph earns its place given the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining the return value, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, flags, temporal_alignment, skipped_unclassified, and the standing fee disclosure. Given three optional parameters and the tool's data-quality caveats, nothing an agent needs to correctly invoke and interpret the result is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description enriches meaning by framing the parameters as two complementary modes, explaining that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, and clarifying that explicit ticker/slug override the topic-mapped side. This adds relational nuance beyond the schema's individual property descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens by stating exactly what the tool does: cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It adds concrete substance with the 2-25pp range and the equivalence caveat, clearly distinguishing this from a simple price fetch.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The two-mode breakdown (topic shortcuts vs explicit pairings) gives clear usage context, and the closing warning that pre-mapped topics are not automatically tradeable acts as a helpful caution. However, it never explicitly contrasts this tool with sibling alternatives like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so it falls short of full when-to-use-vs-alternatives guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Most of the surface is dominated by overlapping meta-tools (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research) plus paired helpers (discover_tools/suggest_questions, ai_visibility_check/scan_competitor_ai_presence), so an agent can easily pick the wrong one. The seven treasury_* tools are clearly distinct, but they are a small island in a much larger ambiguous set.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are broadly snake_case and family-prefixed (treasury_*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*), which helps, but the pattern is not consistently verb_noun: ask_pipeworx, bet_research, entity_profile, deep_research, search_within, and recent_changes mix verb, noun, and product-specific naming styles. Within families it is readable, but across the whole set it is inconsistent.

Tool Count2/5

37 tools is too many for a server whose label is 'Treasury Fiscal'; only about six tools are treasury-specific and the rest are unrelated research, betting, memory, and subscription utilities. This is well into the 25+ heavy range and would make tool selection expensive and error-prone.

Completeness2/5

For a Treasury/Fiscal server the surface is thin: debt, receipts, customs duty, average rates, exchange rates, and net cost cover only a slice of Treasury data. Missing obvious components such as daily yield curves, auction calendars/results, federal outlays/spending by agency or function, and tax or appropriations data; the broad ask_pipeworx router softens but does not fill these as first-class tools.