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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint. Description adds deep behavioral details: algorithms (monotonicity violations, partition-sum checks), semantic anchor (Jaccard ≥0.30), partition filter, fill check logic, and response structure. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured and front-loaded with purpose. Each sentence adds value, but description is lengthy due to technical details (semantic anchor, fill check, partition filter). Could be slightly more concise, but complexity justifies length.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description fully explains response fields (opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning; partition_check structure). Also covers fill check and edge cases (placeholders, low similarity). Complete for a complex arbitrage tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions. Description adds examples, explains that event accepts slugs or URLs, topic is a seed question, and no-args triggers trending scan. Adds value beyond schema by clarifying usage context and mode differences.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' Distinguishes from siblings by mentioning 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk' and explaining unique modes (event, topic, no-arg trending scan).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly tells when to use each parameter: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' Also explains cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses and provides examples. Includes fill-check guidance ('do not trade it' when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

There is substantial overlap among the many question-answering tools (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, validate_claim, compare_entities, entity_profile, recent_changes) and the prediction-market tools (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread). While each has nuanced differences, agents will struggle to select the right one, especially with several 'ask_pipeworx' variants that behave nearly identically.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tool names use snake_case, but patterns vary widely: some are verb_noun (list_feeds, read_feed, subscribe, unsubscribe, remember), others are noun_phrases (polymarket_arbitrage, pipeworx_trending, entity_profile), and a few like 'ask_pipeworx' and 'bet_research' don't follow a consistent structure. The mixed conventions make prediction of new tool names difficult.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, this is far too many for a server named 'Transport Feeds'. The majority of tools are unrelated to transport feeds, covering generic data research, prediction markets, and memory utilities. The count overwhelms any focused purpose and would require extensive discovery to navigate.

Completeness3/5

For the actual data-research and prediction-market functions, the surface is quite complete—covering lookups, comparisons, grounded verification, arbitrage scans, fill risk, trending, and subscriptions. However, for the declared domain (transport feeds), there are only two feed-specific tools (list_feeds, read_feed) with no write/update/delete operations, leaving obvious gaps.