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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With annotations already declaring readOnly and idempotent hints, the description goes far beyond them: it explains the meaning of compatibility_codes, that unknown metric_type/match_subtype legs are never paired, that temporal_alignment null does not mean aligned, and that spreads are gross because Kalshi fees are not modeled. This is exemplary disclosure of limitations and edge-case behavior.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a dense single block of text with many parentheticals, long sentences, and some repetition (e.g., the identical-matcher point is made twice). Every sentence does add information, but the lack of structure (no lists or headings) makes it harder to parse than it could be. It is comprehensive but not concise.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, many safety codes, flags, skipped counters) and the absence of an output schema, the description carries a heavy burden and fulfills it: it explains response fields, warning codes, the fee caveat, and the meaning of temporal fields. Nothing essential for invoking the tool correctly appears to be missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Though the schema already covers all three parameters (100% coverage), the description adds substantial meaning: it enumerates the topic shortcuts, explains that explicit parameters override topic-mapped sides, and clarifies that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. This goes well beyond the baseline schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb-resource statement: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It then details two modes and the response contents. The tool is clearly differentiated from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage by explicitly naming the two venues and the concept of a cross-venue spread.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear context on when to use the topic-mode shortcuts versus explicit ticker/slug pairings, and warns that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility_warning and are not necessarily tradeable. It stops short of naming alternative sibling tools or stating explicit when-not-to-use conditions, but the internal routing guidance is strong.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (currently identical behavior), and ask_pipeworx_grounded are variants of the same router, and the six polymarket_* tools plus bet_research all operate in the same prediction-market space. The extremely detailed descriptions help an agent differentiate, but misselection risk remains real.

Naming Consistency4/5

Snake_case is used consistently and most tools follow a verb_noun pattern (resolve_entity, validate_claim, discover_tools), with predictable polymarket_ and pipeworx_ family prefixes. Minor deviations exist — entity_profile and recent_alerts are noun/adjective phrases, generate_llms_txt embeds a file extension, and single-word verbs (remember, route, geocode) break the strict pattern — but overall naming is coherent.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, the server exceeds the comfortable range and bundles many unrelated domains: data lookup, prediction markets, geocoding/navigation, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, npm scanning, and llms.txt generation. While every tool has a distinct purpose, the surface is heavy and would benefit from splitting into focused servers.

Completeness4/5

Each major cluster has strong lifecycle coverage: data lookup (router, grounded mode, deep research, discovery), company research (resolve, profile, compare, changes), prediction markets (research, arb, edges, fill risk, cross-venue spread), memory (remember/recall/forget), and subscriptions (subscribe/list/unsubscribe/alerts). Minor gaps exist — no direct Polymarket order placement and no explicit tool for fetching pipeworx:// URIs (left to resources) — but agents can accomplish the stated purposes.