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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint), the description discloses rich behavioral details: the Jaccard similarity threshold for semantic pairing, placeholder filtering rules, fill-check logic with realizable_edge_pp, and the explicit warning 'do not trade it' when the edge is only at last-trade. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, Response, FILL CHECK). It front-loads the core purpose and then provides necessary operational details. Some sentences are dense and could be tightened, but the structure earns the length and avoids redundancy.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

This is a complex tool with three modes, multiple filters, and a fill-check subprocess. The description covers inputs, outputs (including response shape with opportunities[] and partition_check object), edge cases (e.g., null arb signal, low similarity, thin legs), and cross-references to a sibling tool for custom sizing. Since there is no output schema, the description appropriately explains return values in full.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already has 100% description coverage for event and topic, but the description adds substantial semantics: it explains that no args triggers trending_scan, gives concrete examples for both parameters, and clarifies which parameter is recommended in different scenarios. The description also surfaces the distinction between event-mode and topic-mode internal workings, going far beyond the schema's basic field descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by detailing three distinct modes (trending_scan, event, topic) with concrete examples like event slugs and seed questions. The purpose is unambiguous and differentiates from similar tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly tells when to call with NO args for trending_scan, when to use 'event' for a specific market, and when to use 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It even states that cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses and directs users to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. This is excellent when/when-not guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have clearly distinct jobs, but ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research are overlapping query/research entry points—and ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to ask_pipeworx. Similarly, ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap by composition. The descriptions are detailed enough to choose correctly with care, but the boundaries are not always crisp.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use lowercase snake_case, which keeps the surface readable, but the naming conventions are mixed: some are imperative verbs (get_tle, list_recent, validate_claim), some are noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_alerts, pipeworx_trending), and several use domain prefixes without a clear verb (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges). This is still discoverable naming, but it does not follow a consistent verb_noun pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well beyond the well-scoped range, and the vast majority belong to a broad Pipeworx research/prediction-market platform rather than the server's apparent 'tle' satellite theme. Only get_tle, list_recent, and search_satellites directly match the server name. It feels like several tool surfaces aggregated into one server rather than one coherent product.

Completeness3/5

For the satellite TLE theme, NORAD lookup, name search, and recent-catalog listing are covered, but orbit propagation, pass prediction, and historical TLE data are missing. For the broader data-research surface, coverage is rich—query, grounded answers, entity resolution, comparison, validation, subscriptions, and memory are all present—so agents have workable paths for most tasks, but the server's mixed scope creates obvious thematic gaps.

Resources