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Glama

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      -  }
      -]New value: +[
      +  {
      +    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      +  }
      +]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare read-only/open-world/idempotent, and this description adds extensive context: GDELT 429 fallbacks, low-confidence short-circuit suppressing analysis, market_closed_or_inactive status, wide-spread tradeability warnings, and cancellation-rule risk with flat-50¢ settlement. This goes well beyond the safety profile of the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the core action, but it is extremely long and dense, with capital-letter labels (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES) embedded in a single paragraph. Many sentences earn their place, but the exhaustive fan-out examples and return-shape details make it over-specified for an opening description.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description self-sufficiently covers all major response shapes (result.market, analysis, evidence), the resolver contract (match_confidence, alternatives, suggestions), parent_event extraction, news fallback flags, blocking statuses, and resolution-rule risk. This is a complete guide for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds real semantic value: it explains how the `market` parameter resolves to candidates, the fan-out depth choices, and the trade-offs for `include_raw` (summarized vs 50KB-500KB payloads). It enriches rather than merely repeats the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb + resource: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It then details the resolution, classification, fan-out, and market-vs-model comparison flow, and the 'Use for' list clarifies its distinct role among research and betting tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit when-to-use guidance is provided: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It also gives fan-out examples and identifies blocking edge cases, but it never names alternative sibling tools or states when not to use this tool, stopping short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded differ only in mode; several Polymarket tools (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_fill_risk, bet_research) target related opportunities; ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap. The meta-tools (discover_tools, suggest_questions, pipeworx_trending) could also be confused for one another.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase snake_case, which is consistent, but patterns vary: some are verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, resolve_entity, validate_claim), others are noun (news, crypto_prices, stock_metadata), and several use brand prefixes (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*). This mixed convention is readable but not predictable.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is too many for a coherent, well-scoped server. The set bundles a financial data API (Tiingo) with a generic data router (ask_pipeworx), prediction-market tools, memory utilities, subscription management, and npm checks — many unrelated to the server's apparent purpose, making it feel bloated.

Completeness2/5

For a Tiingo server, core data coverage is limited to stock prices, stock metadata, crypto prices, and news — missing real-time quotes, fundamentals, forex, technical indicators, and other typical Tiingo endpoints. Conversely, the general Pipeworx platform has broad query/research/subscription coverage but that domain doesn't align with the server name, leaving significant functional gaps.