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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare safe read-only behavior, and the description adds extensive behavioral context: monotonicity checks, partition_sum logic, fill check vs book depth, semantic anchor for cross-event, placeholders filter. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough and well-structured with sections for modes, fill check, etc. A few sentences could be tightened, but overall efficient given the complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, but the description comprehensively covers all response fields, fill check logic, and edge cases. An agent can fully understand how to use the tool and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant value: explains event slug format, that full URLs work, what topic seed question does, and how each mode operates. Goes well beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by specifying the unique arbitrage detection approach.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly tells when to use each parameter: no args for trending scan, `event` for specific market, `topic` for cross-event scan. Provides recommendations (e.g., event mode for specific markets) and when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp <= 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set contains several tightly overlapping clusters: ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_beta (currently identical) vs ask_pipeworx_grounded, five polymarket_* tools with related purposes, and entity_profile vs compare_entities vs recent_changes covering similar company-research ground. The four game tools are distinct but swamped by the unrelated Pipeworx majority, making correct tool selection genuinely difficult.

Naming Consistency2/5

No coherent naming scheme spans the set: snake_case verb_noun (get_game, list_platforms, scan_dependency) coexists with verb_prefix descriptors (ask_pipeworx, generate_llms_txt), domain-prefixed nouns (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending), and bare verbs like recall and forget. Even within the Pipeworx cluster, styles vary unpredictably (ask_pipeworx vs pipeworx_feedback vs scan_competitor_ai_presence).

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is far too many for a server named Thegamesdb, where only 4 of 35 tools relate to the game database at all. The remaining 31 tools constitute a broad Pipeworx data platform with heavy internal overlap, making the surface feel bloated rather than well-scoped.

Completeness2/5

For the declared TheGamesDB domain, coverage is minimal: search, get-by-id, and list genres/platforms, with no per-platform game listings, images/artwork, or updates/refresh functionality. If the true domain is Pipeworx data access, the surface is fairly complete, but as presented under Thegamesdb there are major gaps and a severe identity mismatch.