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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and idempotentHint=true, but the description adds substantial behavioral context beyond that: "Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs," the "rare-by-design" nature of concentrated longshots with explicit gate values, the Fed disclaimer about unreliable signals, and the "24h-move warning" that the edge may already be priced in. This gives agents a rich understanding of how the tool behaves and its limitations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with its core purpose in the first sentence, then each subsequent section delivers dense, non-redundant operational detail—model families, response structure, per-opportunity fields, filters, and caching. While long, every sentence earns its place for a tool of this complexity, and there is no filler or repetition of schema information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully documents the response shape: "RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{...}, fed_candidates/fed_note..., and _diagnostics{...}" plus the per-opportunity fields like edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, liquidity, and the 24h warning. It also explains why segments can be empty (top-N stale, gates, knobs), making the tool actionable even in edge cases.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema has 100% parameter coverage with detailed descriptions for all 9 parameters, so the baseline is 3. The description adds extra semantics by explaining how knobs interact: "TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable" and "min_kelly never filters them" for partitions. It goes beyond the schema's per-parameter text, earning a 4.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence states a specific verb+resource+scope: "Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price." It also distinguishes itself from siblings by explicitly targeting the "what should I bet on today" discovery use case, avoiding the need to page hundreds of markets, which separates it from tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly frames when to use the tool: "Built for 'what should I bet on today' — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets." It also provides practical guidance on knobs like min_liquidity and max_spread_pp to drop unrealizable edges. However, it does not explicitly name alternatives or state when not to use this tool versus related siblings, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

The ask_pipeworx family creates real ambiguity: ask_pipeworx_beta explicitly states it currently matches ask_pipeworx exactly, leaving an agent no principled way to choose between them. discover_tools and suggest_questions also overlap as meta-tools for navigating the catalog, though the remaining tools (five polymarket_* tools, entity tools, subscription lifecycle) are well-delineated by their detailed cross-referenced descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

The set is uniformly snake_case with coherent subfamilies (ask_pipeworx*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*, remember/recall/forget), but it mixes imperative verb_phrase names (validate_claim, resolve_entity, generate_llms_txt) with noun_phrase names (entity_profile, recent_changes, ai_visibility_check), and the_committee_convene breaks the pattern entirely with a full-sentence name. The inconsistency is stylistic rather than chaotic, so it stays readable.

Tool Count2/5

At 32 tools, the set exceeds the 25+ threshold for 'too many' and the breadth is not fully earned: ask_pipeworx_beta is self-admittedly redundant right now, and several tools feel bolted on from unrelated domains (the_committee_convene, generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency, ai_visibility_check). The core data-research and prediction-market scope would be tighter and more navigable at roughly 20-24 tools.

Completeness4/5

The primary domain — authoritative data lookup, entity research, and prediction-market analysis — is covered with no dead ends: query (ask_pipeworx, grounded, deep_research), profile (resolve_entity, entity_profile, compare_entities), track (recent_changes), verify (validate_claim), bet research (bet_research, polymarket_edges, arbitrage, fill_risk, kalshi_spread), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts), and memory (remember/recall/forget) form complete lifecycles. Minor gaps exist only at the periphery: no execution layer for prediction-market trades (research stops at fill-risk advice) and single-tool coverage for the npm/llms.txt/AI-visibility side-domains.