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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the readOnly/idempotent annotations by revealing compatibility_codes, pairing_unverified status in both modes, fee treatment, null semantics for temporal_alignment, and the fact that unclassified legs are never paired. This is rich, candid behavioral disclosure about a complex matcher.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the core purpose and organized with clear section labels like TWO MODES, RESPONSE, and SAFETY FIELDS. It is long, but the density is largely justified by the number of safety caveats; a little redundancy around temporal_alignment semantics keeps it from a 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully carries the return-value burden: it covers leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp flags, compatibility fields, skipped counters, low-confidence pairs, fees disclosure, and alignment semantics. An agent has enough information to call the tool and interpret its results safely.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already documents all three parameters at 100% coverage, so the baseline is 3; the description adds meaningful relational meaning by explaining that explicit ticker/slug overrides replace the topic-mapped side and that both modes run the identical matcher. That is useful context beyond the field descriptions, though per-param syntax is still left mostly to the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description leads with a specific resource and task: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, and explains when the delta is a real signal. It also clearly distinguishes itself from single-venue tools by emphasizing cross-venue comparison and the same-outcome matching requirement.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly lays out two invocation modes, which parameters apply to each, and warns that pre-mapped topics are not automatically tradeable because most return compatibility warnings. It does not explicitly name alternative sibling tools or give an explicit when-not-to-use list, so it falls just short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have nearly identical purposes: autocomplete and search_suggestions both return query completions, ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are currently identical, and ai_visibility_check overlaps with scan_competitor_ai_presence. The detailed descriptions help for some, but the overlapping clusters create real confusion for an agent selecting a tool.

Naming Consistency3/5

Naming is a mix of single-word nouns (search, featured, posts, categories) and snake_case verb phrases (resolve_entity, compare_entities, ask_pipeworx), with modifier suffixes like _beta and _grounded. While the snake_case is consistent where used, the overall pattern is not uniform across the server.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is far too many for a server named 'Tenor' whose core GIF API needs only a handful. Much of the surface belongs to Pipeworx data, polymarket analytics, memory, and subscriptions—scope that belongs in a different server or a clearly separated package.

Completeness5/5

The Pipeworx side is remarkably complete: query (ask_pipeworx), grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, validation, discovery, memory, subscriptions, and specialized polymarket tools all cover their domain thoroughly. The Tenor side has search, browse, categories, trending, suggestions, and post retrieval—no critical dead ends.