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Tarot Draw

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "event"
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "topic"
-    ]
-  }
-]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "event"
+    ]
+  },
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "topic"
+    ]
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description adds extensive behavioral context: explains monotonicity and partition-sum checks, Jaccard similarity for cross-event pairing, placeholder slug filtering, fill check against live CLOB depth, and conditions for not trading. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is somewhat long but well-structured: summary sentence, mode details, cross-event specifics, partition filter, response format, fill check. It is front-loaded with the core purpose. Could be slightly more concise, but each sentence adds value for the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array with fields, partition_check object) and fill check results. It covers modes, filtering, and limitations. For a scanning/analysis tool, this provides complete context for an AI agent to use correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with both parameters described. The description adds value by providing real-world examples (e.g., event slug 'fed-decision-may-2026', topic 'Fed rate decision') and clarifying that full Polymarket URLs are accepted for the event parameter. This enriches the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies the verb (find), resource (arbitrage opportunities), and methodology. It distinguishes between event and topic modes, and provides examples. It differentiates from sibling tools by focusing on specific arbitrage detection methods.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It recommends event mode for specific markets and topic for cross-event scanning. It also advises against trading when realizable_edge_pp <= 0 and directs to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tool families have unclear boundaries: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, suggest_questions and discover_tools are near-duplicates, and ai_visibility_check is a subset of scan_competitor_ai_presence. The five polymarket_* tools are heavily overlapping in purpose and rely on long descriptions to distinguish them, which an agent must read carefully to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase snake_case and there are helpful prefixes (polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx_*, pipeworx_*), but the verb/noun ordering is inconsistent: verb-first names (generate_llms_txt, resolve_entity, scan_dependency) sit alongside noun-first names (bet_research, entity_profile, recent_changes) and bare verbs (forget, recall, remember). Sub-families are internally consistent, but the set as a whole follows no single convention.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is over the 'too many' threshold, and the scope is a grab-bag rather than a focused server: data research, prediction-market analysis, npm dependency checks, llms.txt generation, memory utilities, subscriptions, and exactly one tarot tool. The server is named 'Tarot Draw' yet 31 of 32 tools serve a completely different purpose, making the count wildly mismatched to the apparent identity.

Completeness2/5

For the inferred Pipeworx data/prediction-market domain the coverage is genuinely deep — ask/grounded/deep research, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, validation, subscriptions, alerts, edge tracking, and arbitrage all exist. But for the stated purpose ('Tarot Draw'), the surface is one draw tool with no deck details, spreads, reading history, or reversal support, and the data tools' domain is so diffuse that an agent cannot rely on the set forming a coherent workflow.

Resources