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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, premapped_pairing_unverified (always set in topic mode when pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[]. A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior, so the bar is lower. The description goes well beyond that by disclosing that compatibility_warning/compatibility_codes can be non-empty even when pairs exist, that unknown metric_type/match_subtype legs are never paired, and that skipped counters reveal how many comparisons were dropped. It also warns that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable, providing critical behavioral context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but highly structured, front-loading purpose and modes before diving into response fields, safety fields, codes, and reliability caveats. It is dense but every section carries important operational warnings; the only minor inefficiency is repeating the topic list that already exists in the schema.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully explains the response structure, including leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility codes, temporal_alignment, and skipped counters. It covers edge cases, warns about unverified pairings, and tells the agent exactly what to look for—making the tool callable correctly without needing additional documentation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds meaningful nuance: it explains how the two explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side and clarifies that topic is a shortcut that auto-fetches matching events on both venues. This helps the agent understand parameter interplay beyond the schema's individual descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description plainly states the tool computes a cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, which is a specific function with a clear resource. It differentiates itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage by focusing on cross-venue comparisons, and it details the two operating modes, leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly explains when to use each mode—topic shortcuts for pre-mapped macros and explicit tickers/slugs for custom pairings—and cautions that most pre-mapped topics are not tradeable and may return compatibility warnings. It does not explicitly name sibling tools as alternatives or give 'when not to use' conditions, but the context is strong enough for an agent to decide correctly.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools occupy nearly identical roles: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical right now), ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer research questions; polymarket_edges, bet_research, and polymarket_arbitrage overlap heavily on prediction-market opportunities; entity_profile, compare_entities, and recent_changes overlap on company research. The detailed descriptions help, but the clusters create real misselection risk.

Naming Consistency4/5

Nearly all tools follow a readable snake_case convention, many with verb_noun structure (resolve_entity, list_subscriptions, validate_claim, scan_dependency). Minor deviations exist: tankerkoenig_stations_nearby plural vs tankerkoenig_station_details/prices singular, plus noun-style names like pipeworx_feedback and pipeworx_trending, but the overall pattern is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy, and the problem is compounded by the server being named Tankerkoenig: only 3 of the 34 tools relate to German fuel prices while the other 31 are an unrelated Pipeworx/Polymarket/memory/subscription toolkit. This is a sprawling, unfocused surface rather than a well-scoped set.

Completeness3/5

For the nominal Tankerkoenig domain, stations_nearby + station_details + prices cover core lookups, though station search by name and price history are missing. For the broader bundled data/prediction-market domain, coverage is extensive but has notable gaps such as no trade execution, no general web search, and several redundant access paths that complicate the surface.