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Statec Lu

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint) by disclosing operational behaviors: resolver match confidence levels, blocking short-circuit paths for low-confidence/closed markets, fallback handling for GDELT 429s with _fallback_attempted fields, wide-spread flags, and cancellation-rule parsing with ev_impact. These are critical for an agent to use the tool safely and interpret results correctly.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with clear section headers (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, etc.) and front-loaded with the core purpose. It is dense with valuable information; however, it could be trimmed slightly by reducing the number of fan-out examples and some repeated cautions about low-confidence matches.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining return values, and it does so thoroughly. It describes result.market, result.analysis, result.evidence, resolver contracts, parent_event fields, news fallback behavior, and safety statuses. It also covers edge cases like closed markets, wide spreads, and cancellation rules, making it complete enough for correct invocation and interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds examples of fan-out for different bet types, but it does not add significant meaning about the parameters themselves beyond what the schema already documents. The market parameter's accepted forms are already fully described in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies the resource (Polymarket bets) and the action (research by pulling data). However, it does not explicitly name sibling alternatives for comparison, so it falls short of the strictest 'distinguishes from siblings' bar.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit use cases: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It also offers detailed fan-out examples and warns agents to check cancellation rules before sizing sports bets. However, it does not state when not to use the tool or mention alternatives like polymarket_edges or validate_claim.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have blurry boundaries: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-identical (beta is explicitly 'exactly' the stable version), and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence is a single-vs-batch duplicate. The six polymarket_* tools are differentiated by long descriptions, but their overlapping concerns (edges, arbitrage, fill risk, spread) would frequently misroute an agent, and discover_tools vs suggest_questions also compete.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names follow two coexisting conventions: verb_noun for actions (get_data, resolve_entity, validate_claim) and domain-prefixed families (polymarket_*, pipeworx_*, ask_pipeworx_*). Within each family the pattern is consistent, but mixing the two styles across the set, plus outliers like generate_llms_txt and bare verbs (remember, forget, recall), makes the overall scheme feel uneven though still readable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the 'heavy' threshold and the count is not justified by the server's stated identity: a server named 'Statec Lu' (Luxembourg statistics) contains only 3 STATEC tools buried among general data-platform, prediction-market, AI-visibility, npm-scanning, and memory utilities. The sprawling, multi-domain surface would be more coherent split into separate servers.

Completeness3/5

The STATEC subset is complete (list_dataflows → dataflow_structure → get_data forms a full browse/fetch lifecycle), and the broader research surface covers entity resolution, grounded answers, comparison, claim verification, and subscription/alert/memory management. However, the overall domain is incoherent—a STATEC server missing nothing for statistics but carrying 31 unrelated tools—and there are notable gaps such as no tool to directly fetch a pipeworx:// citation URI and no execution side for the extensive Polymarket analysis tools.

Resources