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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The annotations already declare readOnly, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior, and the description goes well beyond that: it discloses that compatibility fields can be non-empty even when pairs are returned, that unknown legs are never paired, that temporal_alignment null means 'could not be computed' not 'aligned,' that spreads are gross and exclude Kalshi fees, and that flagged mismatches may mean different questions. This is rich, honest behavioral disclosure with no contradiction of annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with explicit section markers: TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, Codes, and fee disclosures. Nearly every sentence adds operational value, though some details are repeated or could be tightened, such as the overlapping discussion of compatibility flags in the SAFETY FIELDS section and again on top_spreads_pp entries.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Because there is no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining the response, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, spread entries, safety fields, compatibility codes, flags, skipped-leg counters, temporal alignment semantics, fee caveats, and the practical warning that many macro shortcuts are not currently tradeable. An agent has enough information to invoke the tool and interpret the result in both modes.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already covers all three parameters at 100%, but the description adds substantial meaning: it explains the topic mode's shortcut list, explicit ticker/slug overrides, and that both modes run the same matcher and produce the same disclosures. It also clarifies that kalshi_event_ticker and polymarket_event_slug override their topic-mapped counterparts, which is not apparent from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific, unambiguous statement: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It names the exact resources (Kalshi and Polymarket), the output concept (spread), and the condition for meaningful comparison, making it clearly distinguishable from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_arbitrage.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives strong context for when to use the tool: it explains the two modes, notes that both run the identical token-overlap matcher, and warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return a compatibility_warning and that 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' It does not explicitly name alternative sibling tools or provide an explicit 'use tool X instead' rule, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-identical in scope, and the prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk) share similar functions. While some tools are distinct, the boundaries between many are unclear.

Naming Consistency2/5

Names mix product-like identifiers (ask_pipeworx, deep_research), descriptive nouns (entity_profile, subjects), and inconsistent verb forms (query_table, resolve_entity, scan_competitor_ai_presence). No consistent verb_noun pattern is maintained across the set.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the server is overpopulated relative to its apparent purpose. The name 'Statbank Md' suggests a narrow statistical service, but only 3 tools are Statbank-specific; the rest form a sprawling general-purpose data toolkit. The count is far beyond what the core function needs.

Completeness3/5

For the Statbank subset, the surface is complete (browse subjects, get metadata, query data). As a general data research suite, it covers many domains (SEC, FDA, economics, prediction markets) but lacks execution/trading tools for prediction markets and has no bulk data export or analytics beyond excerpts. Notable gaps exist but many core workflows are covered.