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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the read-only annotation by detailing internal behaviors: it explains the partition_check sum logic, the >=0.30 Jaccard similarity anchor, placeholder filtering (>20% returns null signal), and the fill check against live CLOB depth with advice not to trade when realizable_edge_pp <= 0. This provides rich context that the annotations alone do not.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but highly structured, with clear bolded labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and a front-loaded summary. Every section contributes essential operational detail, and the length is justified by the tool's complexity. There is no filler or repetition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and lack of an output schema, the description is exceptionally complete. It describes the response shape (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check fields), handles edge cases (null signal, skipped_low_similarity, thin_legs), and provides actionable guidance on interpreting results. No critical gap remains for an agent to invoke this tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the input schema already provides 100% description coverage for both parameters, the tool description adds significant semantic value by giving concrete example slugs ('fed-decision-may-2026'), explaining the behavior triggered by each parameter, and clarifying that full URLs are also accepted. This exceeds the baseline for high schema coverage.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes this tool from siblings like polymarket_edges (likely focused on edges) and polymarket_fill_risk (pricing risk), making its purpose unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit usage guidance: call with NO args for trending_scan, use 'event' for a specific market, and use 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It explains when each mode is appropriate and even references an alternative tool for custom sizing ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk'). This fully satisfies when-to-use/alternative guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have fairly distinct action/resource targets and the descriptions carefully separate entry points like ask_pipeworx, deep_research, and ask_pipeworx_grounded. However, ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly an identical clone of ask_pipeworx right now, and a few related pairs (ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence, stat_ee_find_table fetch_latest vs estonia_average_wage) add ambiguity.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are consistently lowercase snake_case and verb-led names like resolve_entity, query_table, and suggest_questions are clear. But the set mixes conventions: bare nouns (subjects, recall, forget), adjective-noun phrases (recent_alerts, recent_changes), no-verb names (estonia_average_wage, table_meta), and multiple prefixes (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, stat_ee_*). It is readable but not a single predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is well above the 15-tool threshold for a well-scoped server, and the set spans many unrelated domains: Estonian statistics, Pipeworx research, Polymarket betting, AI visibility, npm scanning, memory, and subscriptions. There is also clear redundancy (ask_pipeworx_beta duplicates ask_pipeworx, ai_visibility_check could be folded into scan_competitor_ai_presence). This feels scattered for a server named 'Stat Ee'.

Completeness4/5

For the broad data-research/agent-assistant purpose, key workflows are well covered: discovery/query/grounded/deep research, entity resolution/profile/compare/validate/recent changes, complete memory CRUD, subscription CRUD with alert feeds, and a full Polymarket edge/arb/fill-risk suite. The main gap is not missing operations within these workflows but rather the overall scope being too broad and unfocused.