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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even with annotations declaring readOnlyHint=true, the description goes far beyond by detailing the semantic anchor (≥0.30 Jaccard similarity), the partition filter (placeholder slugs, >20% placeholder fraction returns null), and the fill check (prices against live CLOB depth, thin_legs[]). These disclose limitations and safety checks, making the tool's behavior transparent. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with explicit section labels ('SEMANTIC ANCHOR', 'PARTITION FILTER', 'FILL CHECK') that aid scanning. Some pruning of the detailed mathematical thresholds could improve readability, but every sentence adds meaningful value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

This is a complex tool with two modes, filters, and a fill check, and the description covers purpose, parameters, output structure, limitations, and where to go for custom sizing. Given no output schema, it even specifies response fields like 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context)' — completely adequate for an agent to understand and invoke.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema has 100% coverage, but the description enriches both `event` and `topic` with mode-specific behavior, examples ('fed-decision-may-2026' or 'when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k'), and what the tool does with each. It also clarifies that no args triggers a trending_scan, which is not in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks' — a specific verb, resource, and method. It clearly distinguishes between the event and topic modes, and differentiates from siblings like polymarket_fill_risk by noting 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.'

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly tells when to call with no args for a trending_scan, when to use event (recommended for a specific market), and when to use topic for cross-event scanning. It also provides an alternative tool ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk') and gives concrete examples like 'fed-decision-may-2026' and 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal'.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded differ only in mode, and the polymarket_* cluster (polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) all target prediction-market analysis with fuzzy boundaries. The presence of ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence, plus discover_tools and suggest_questions, adds further ambiguity about which tool to select first.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are all snake_case but follow mixed conventions: verb_noun (list_feeds, read_feed, fetch_feed, validate_claim) coexists with noun_phrase (entity_profile, recent_changes, polymarket_edges) and prefix-grouped names (ask_pipeworx*, polymarket_*). While subgroups are internally consistent, the overall set lacks a unified pattern, though it remains readable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the 25+ threshold for too many, and the count is especially inappropriate for a server named 'Sports Feeds' — most tools are generic data-research or meta-tools (subscriptions, memory, feedback, discovery) unrelated to sports feeds. The bloat suggests the server is actually a broad Pipeworx gateway, not a focused sports feeder.

Completeness2/5

For a sports-feeds server, only list_feeds, read_feed, and fetch_feed address the core domain, and there is no feed search, categorization beyond a simple list, or sports-specific analytics. While the general research surface (SEC, FDA, economics, prediction markets) is fairly comprehensive, it is misaligned with the stated server purpose, leaving the actual sports-feed functionality thin and with obvious gaps.