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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations are read-only and non-destructive, but the description adds rich behavioral context beyond them: the >3pp threshold for partition signals, the placeholder filter rule (>20% returns null), the fill check against live CLOB depth, and the caveat that realizable_edge_pp <= 0 means the arb only exists at last-trade. This gives agents a clear picture of edge-case behavior.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but densely packed with high-value information. It front-loads the primary purpose and then details modes, filters, output fields, and fill-check logic. It reads as a compact wall of text without paragraph breaks, which slightly hinders quick parsing, but every sentence earns its place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The tool has no output schema, so the description fully takes on the burden of explaining the response structure: opportunities[] with fields, partition_check details, and the fill-check output. It also covers semantic anchor thresholds, placeholder filtering, and gives concrete examples of slugs and seed questions. For a complex, multi-mode tool, this is complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description elevates the parameters by explaining the exact semantics: 'event' expects a Polymarket slug or URL, 'topic' expects a seed question, and both are optional with distinct behavior. It also clarifies what the tool does when no args are passed, making the parameter model fully understandable beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes the tool from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by its unique focus on arbitrage detection and the three invocation modes.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states when to use each mode: no args for trending_scan, 'event' for a specific market, and 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It also provides recommended usage guidance ('recommended for a specific market') and points to the alternative tool polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, giving clear when-to-use vs alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The tool set bundles three unrelated domains, and within them several tools are near-indistinguishable: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded overlaps with validate_claim, bet_research/polymarket_edges/polymarket_arbitrage all target betting opportunities, and meal_plan_generate duplicates meal_plan_week. The aspect-specific recipe fetchers (ingredients/nutrition/summary/taste) also blur with recipe_information.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools follow a reasonable snake_case verb_noun pattern (recipe_search, resolve_entity, compare_entities, unsubscribe), and each cluster (recipe_*, polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx*) is internally consistent. However, conventions fragment across clusters — bare verb memory tools (remember, forget, recall), the ask_pipeworx_beta/_grounded suffix family, and the odd generate_llms_txt — so no single predictable scheme governs the whole surface.

Tool Count2/5

49 tools is far too many for a coherent surface, and crucially the count is misaligned with the server's stated identity: only 18 of 49 tools actually belong to the Spoonacular food domain, while 27 are Pipeworx data/prediction-market tools and 3 are generic memory utilities. The server appears to be three products mashed into one.

Completeness3/5

For the core Spoonacular food domain the surface is reasonably complete — search for recipes/products/ingredients, detail fetchers, meal plans, wine pairing, and unit conversion all exist. But the overwhelming presence of unrelated Pipeworx and memory tools makes the server's actual purpose ambiguous, and gaps are hard to assess when the food tools share the namespace with SEC filings and Polymarket arbitrage.