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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true and idempotentHint=true, but the description goes far beyond by detailing fan-out examples, resolver contract (market_match_confidence), short-circuit statuses ('low_confidence_match'), closed-market handling, wide-spread tradeability, and cancellation-rule risk. This extensively discloses behavior that annotations cannot convey.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but unusually well-structured: it opens with the core purpose, then uses SCREAMING-CASE section headers for classifiers, fan-out examples, response shapes, resolver contract, parent event, news fields, safety, and resolution-rule risk. Every sentence adds operational value for a complex tool, making the length justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries full burden for return values and edge cases, and it excels: it documents result.market/analysis/evidence, match_confidence semantics, parent_event extraction, fallback fields, and blocking statuses. Given the tool's complexity, this is a complete and self-sufficient reference.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%—all three parameters have descriptions already. The description adds context about the market parameter (slug/URL/question text) but this is duplicated from the schema; no new parameter-level semantics are introduced. Thus baseline 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource combination ('Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data') and clearly differentiates from siblings like polymarket_edges by describing the fan-out to category-specific data packs. It also lists concrete input formats (slug, URL, question text) and classifier categories, leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It provides explicit usage scenarios ('Use for "should I bet on X"') and behavioral guardrails ('ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block'). However, it does not name alternative sibling tools for when-not-to-use cases, so it's clear context but no explicit exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The tool set bundles three unrelated domains, and within them several tools are near-indistinguishable: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded overlaps with validate_claim, bet_research/polymarket_edges/polymarket_arbitrage all target betting opportunities, and meal_plan_generate duplicates meal_plan_week. The aspect-specific recipe fetchers (ingredients/nutrition/summary/taste) also blur with recipe_information.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools follow a reasonable snake_case verb_noun pattern (recipe_search, resolve_entity, compare_entities, unsubscribe), and each cluster (recipe_*, polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx*) is internally consistent. However, conventions fragment across clusters — bare verb memory tools (remember, forget, recall), the ask_pipeworx_beta/_grounded suffix family, and the odd generate_llms_txt — so no single predictable scheme governs the whole surface.

Tool Count2/5

49 tools is far too many for a coherent surface, and crucially the count is misaligned with the server's stated identity: only 18 of 49 tools actually belong to the Spoonacular food domain, while 27 are Pipeworx data/prediction-market tools and 3 are generic memory utilities. The server appears to be three products mashed into one.

Completeness3/5

For the core Spoonacular food domain the surface is reasonably complete — search for recipes/products/ingredients, detail fetchers, meal plans, wine pairing, and unit conversion all exist. But the overwhelming presence of unrelated Pipeworx and memory tools makes the server's actual purpose ambiguous, and gaps are hard to assess when the food tools share the namespace with SEC filings and Polymarket arbitrage.