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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnlyHint/idempotentHint annotations, the description adds rich behavioral context: the >3pp threshold, Jaccard ≥0.30 similarity filter, placeholder slug dropping, the >20% placeholder null-arb rule, and the fill-check logic that prices against live CLOB depth (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means don't trade). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but logically structured with labeled sections (modes, SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence earns its place, covering necessary operational details without filler. The core purpose is front-loaded, and the length is justified by the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully defines the return structure: 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context)' and 'partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}'. It covers edge cases (null arb signal, thin_legs) and references a sibling for sizing, making it complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds substantial meaning beyond the schema: 'event' takes a slug or full URL and walks child markets, 'topic' searches related events and flattens markets, and the no-arg mode is explained. It also clarifies optional parameter semantics and provides concrete examples.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+method: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges by the unique approach and response structure, and includes mode-specific purposes (trending_scan, event, topic).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit when-to-use guidance is provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check', and 'topic for a themed cross-event scan'. It also notes that cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses and points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, giving clear alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several clusters overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-identical routers (the beta currently matches stable exactly), and the Polymarket tools all circle around edge/arbitrage detection with fuzzy boundaries. The Spain tender tools and utility tools are distinct, but the overlapping clusters are enough to cause misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are uniformly snake_case and some families share clear prefixes (es_tender_*, ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*). However, conventions are mixed: verb-led names like compare_entities and subscribe sit alongside noun phrases like entity_profile and bet_research, so there is no consistent verb_noun pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is already in the heavy range, but the bigger problem is scope: a server named 'Spain Tenders' ships 34 tools, only 3 of which are actually Spanish-procurement tools. The rest are a broad Pipeworx/Polymarket/utility toolkit, making the count inappropriate for the declared purpose.

Completeness3/5

The three es_tender_* tools cover the core discovery workflows: keyword search, recent notices, and status filtering with budgets, deadlines, and URLs. Notable gaps remain, though: no tender detail-by-id tool, no tender-specific subscription/alerting, and no explicit region, CPV, or date-range filters.