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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint false. The description goes far beyond this by detailing the scanning mechanism (top 200 markets), fill check logic (theoretical vs realizable edge), semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter (placeholders), and response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough but lengthy, containing many technical details. It is well-structured with clear sections for each mode and response. While every sentence serves a purpose, a slightly more condensed version could be equally effective. It is not wasteful but could be more concise.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the description covers all necessary aspects: purpose, parameter usage, response format, edge cases (semantic anchor, partition filter), and fill check behavior. No output schema exists, but the description explains the response structure adequately. Combined with annotations, it provides complete contextual information.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the tool description adds significant value by explaining the two modes in depth, providing example inputs (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026', 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal'), and clarifying that full URLs are accepted for the event parameter. This greatly enhances understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly identifies the tool's function and distinguishes between two modes (event and topic), providing specific use cases. This differentiates it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear guidance on when to use no args (trending_scan), event mode (for a specific market), and topic mode (for cross-event scanning). It recommends event mode for specific markets and explains the rationale. However, it does not explicitly compare to sibling tools or state when not to use this tool, which slightly reduces the score.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-duplicates: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly described as currently identical to ask_pipeworx, and multiple prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage) overlap in purpose. The Solana-specific tools are distinct, but the large non-Solana cluster creates real ambiguity.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tools use snake_case, but naming styles vary widely: get_/list_ verbs, ask_pipeworx family, polymarket_* cluster, and descriptive noun-style names like entity_profile, validate_claim, generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency. There is no single consistent verb_noun convention across the set.

Tool Count1/5

With 36 tools, the count is high, but the critical problem is scope mismatch: a server named Solscan has only 5 Solana-related tools, while 31 are unrelated data/research/prediction-market utilities. This makes the tool count inappropriate for the apparent purpose.

Completeness2/5

As a Solana explorer, the set covers only account details, token holdings, token metadata, transactions, and transfers; major gaps include blocks, token price/history, NFTs, programs/staking, and more comprehensive transfer history. For the broader data-research theme, coverage is broad but scattered and lacks a single coherent domain.

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