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Smithsonian

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint false. The description goes well beyond, detailing semantic anchors (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filters (placeholder slug filtering), and fill checks against live CLOB depth with explicit thresholds (gap >3pp, realizable_edge_pp ≤0 means no trade). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but verbose (~20 lines). It ties several concepts together in a dense paragraph, which could be more structured (e.g., using bullet points for modes). While every sentence adds value, the length reduces clarity at a glance.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, fill check, partition_filter), the description covers all aspects: output structure (opportunities[], partition_check), fill check rationale, and even a reference to a sibling tool for custom sizing. No output schema is provided, but the description compensates adequately.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, and the description adds significant value: for `event` it explains it walks child markets and checks ordering/partition; for `topic` it describes cross-event search and comparator application. It also notes that full Polymarket URLs are accepted for `event`, enhancing schema meaning.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies three distinct modes (no-arg trending scan, event mode, topic mode) with concrete examples, distinguishing it from siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug...', 'topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question...'. It explains when to use each mode and why cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Many tools serve overlapping purposes, such as the three ask_pipeworx variants (stable, beta, grounded) and the six Polymarket-specific tools. While detailed descriptions help distinguish them, an agent could still confuse bet_research with polymarket_edges or the ask_pipeworx versions.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is highly inconsistent: verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities), noun_noun (bet_research, entity_profile), single verbs (forget, recall, search), and adjective_noun (recent_alerts, deep_research). No clear pattern emerges across the set.

Tool Count3/5

33 tools is on the high side for a server named 'Smithsonian' that actually covers a broad range of data sources (SEC, FDA, Polymarket, npm, etc.). The number feels borderline heavy but is still manageable if the server's true purpose is general research.

Completeness4/5

The tool set covers multiple domains (company financials, drugs, economics, prediction markets, npm, museum data) with reasonable depth. Minor gaps exist, such as lack of PyPI scanning or missing update/delete operations for some memory features, but core workflows are well-supported.

Resources