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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, so read-only behavior is clear. The description adds substantial behavioral context: details on arbitrage detection logic, semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter, fill check, and response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is detailed but somewhat verbose. It front-loads the primary function and maintains logical flow. Every sentence adds value, but could be more concise by grouping mode-specific details. Still, it remains highly informative.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description fully explains the return structure (opportunities array with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning; partition_check details). It covers modes, edge cases (low similarity, placeholder filtering), and fill check. Given complexity, it is complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100% for both parameters. Description adds meaning beyond the schema: explains 'event' accepts slug or URL, 'topic' is a seed question, and elaborates on what each mode does. The description also explains output fields like 'gap_pp', 'suggested_trade', and partition check details.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It explicitly distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) with examples, differentiating it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance: call with no args for trending scan, pass 'event' for single-event mode, pass 'topic' for cross-event mode. Recommends 'event' for specific markets and explains when to use each. Includes warnings about fill checks and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The server name 'Shodan' misleadingly implies a narrow focus on network security scanning, yet the tool set includes many unrelated tools for data lookup (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, etc.), memory management, and subscriptions. Within the pipeworx tools, there is overlap between ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research, which can confuse agents about which to choose.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names mix conventions: some use underscores (ai_visibility_check, shodan_host), others use lowercased phrases without clear partitioning (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, entity_profile). Verb-noun patterns are inconsistent (e.g., 'scan_competitor_ai_presence' vs 'compare_entities'). This lack of a predictable naming scheme increases cognitive load.

Tool Count2/5

With 33 tools covering distinct domains (Shodan scanning, pipeworx data, memory, subscriptions), the server feels overloaded and unfocused. While each tool may individually be useful, the bundling contradicts the principle of a single-purpose server. A more appropriate count for a focused Shodan server would be under 10 tools.

Completeness2/5

For the Shodan domain, only three tools are provided (host, host_count, host_search), missing key capabilities like DNS lookups, vulnerability search, or API key management. The pipeworx tool set is extensive but not the server's advertised purpose, leaving gaps in both areas. The addition of memory and subscription tools adds unrelated functionality without completing any single domain.