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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint as true. Description adds significant behavioral context: scanning scope (top 200 markets), partition check threshold (3pp), semantic anchor (0.30 Jaccard), placeholder filter, fill check with CLOB depth. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is thorough but long. Front-loads purpose and modes. Every sentence adds value, but some sections could be more terse. However, given complexity, length is acceptable.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, description fully explains return structure (opportunities array, partition_check object, fill check results). Covers edge cases like low similarity and placeholder filters. Comprehensive for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema covers both parameters with descriptions. Tool description adds context: explains event slugs vs topic seed, gives examples, and notes default behavior with no args. This enriches understanding beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies two modes (event and topic) and distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on arbitrage logic.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scan. It recommends event mode for a specific market and warns against trading when realizable edge is ≤0. Provides alternative tool for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, ask_pipeworx_grounded and deep_research both answer grounded research questions, and bet_research, polymarket_edges, and polymarket_arbitrage all surface prediction-market opportunities. Long descriptions help, but the overlap creates real misselection risk, especially between the ask_pipeworx variants.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a clear lowercase snake_case verb_noun or domain_verb pattern (lookup_ip, resolve_entity, validate_claim, list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt). There are minor deviations like noun-first names (entity_profile, polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending) and product-branded verbs (ask_pipeworx), but the overall style is consistent enough to predict behavior.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is well over the 25-tool threshold where a tool set becomes hard to navigate, and the server named 'Shodan Internetdb' carries only one Shodan-related tool among dozens of Pipeworx, Polymarket, memory, and utility tools. The count reflects scope sprawl rather than a focused, coherent surface.

Completeness3/5

The broader inferred domain (structured data lookup, entity research, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions) is covered surprisingly well, with lifecycle tools for subscriptions and memory. However, there are notable gaps: no tool to fetch a pipeworx:// citation URI directly, no equivalent scan coverage for non-NPM ecosystems despite mentioning them, and the Shodan surface is minimal relative to the server name.