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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral traits beyond annotations: classifier fan-out examples, resolver contract with confidence levels, parent event extraction, news fallback handling, safety mechanisms (low-confidence short-circuits, closed market blocking, wide-spread warnings), and cancellation rule parsing. This far exceeds what annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint) provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is very detailed and well-structured (with sections like RESOLVER CONTRACT, PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR), but it is quite verbose. While each sentence adds value, the length may hinder quick parsing. A slightly more concise version could retain completeness while improving readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description covers all essential aspects: input types, processing logic (classifiers, fan-outs), output shape (market, analysis, evidence), edge cases (low confidence, closed markets, wide spreads, cancellation rules), and error states. Given no output schema, the description fully compensates by detailing return fields and conditions.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the description adds meaning beyond the schema: for 'market', it explains it accepts slug, URL, or question text; for 'depth', it describes quick vs thorough; for 'include_raw', it explains response size implications. This helps an agent choose values appropriately.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies the verb (research), resource (Polymarket bet via Pipeworx data), and scope (in one call). This distinguishes it from siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_arbitrage, which focus on edge tracking or arbitrage.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly provides use cases: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' It implies when to use the tool but does not explicitly mention when not to use it or direct to alternatives. However, the clear use cases and detailed behavior guide an agent effectively.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, ask_pipeworx_grounded and deep_research both answer grounded research questions, and bet_research, polymarket_edges, and polymarket_arbitrage all surface prediction-market opportunities. Long descriptions help, but the overlap creates real misselection risk, especially between the ask_pipeworx variants.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a clear lowercase snake_case verb_noun or domain_verb pattern (lookup_ip, resolve_entity, validate_claim, list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt). There are minor deviations like noun-first names (entity_profile, polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending) and product-branded verbs (ask_pipeworx), but the overall style is consistent enough to predict behavior.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is well over the 25-tool threshold where a tool set becomes hard to navigate, and the server named 'Shodan Internetdb' carries only one Shodan-related tool among dozens of Pipeworx, Polymarket, memory, and utility tools. The count reflects scope sprawl rather than a focused, coherent surface.

Completeness3/5

The broader inferred domain (structured data lookup, entity research, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions) is covered surprisingly well, with lifecycle tools for subscriptions and memory. However, there are notable gaps: no tool to fetch a pipeworx:// citation URI directly, no equivalent scan coverage for non-NPM ecosystems despite mentioning them, and the Shodan surface is minimal relative to the server name.