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Glama

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      -  }
      -]New value: +[
      +  {
      +    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      +  }
      +]
  3. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / include_raw
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Default false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.",
      +  "type": "boolean"
      +}
  4. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral traits beyond annotations: it explains the internal process (resolve market, classify, fan-out to data packs), details response shapes (market, analysis, evidence), outlines safety mechanisms (low-confidence short-circuit, closed market handling, wide-spread flag), and even includes resolution-rule risk and parent event extraction. This goes far beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, etc.), providing agents with a complete mental model of the tool's execution.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with a clear purpose sentence, but then becomes quite lengthy with many details (classifiers list, fan-out examples, response shapes, resolver contract, parent extractor, news fields, safety, resolution-rule risk). While all information is valuable, it could be more compressed or structured as separate sections. Every sentence earns its place, but the verbosity reduces quick scannability for an AI agent.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple classifiers, fan-out to diverse data sources, various response fields), the description is remarkably complete. It explains the output structure in detail (market, analysis, evidence), covers edge cases (low confidence, closed markets, wide spreads, resolution-rule risk), and provides concrete fan-out examples. Without an output schema, the description fully compensate by describing all possible response fields and behaviors.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema coverage is 100%, with each parameter already having a clear description (market: slug/URL/question text; depth: quick/thorough default; include_raw: summary vs full payload). The tool description adds no new parameter-specific information beyond what the schema provides; it mainly contextualizes overall behavior. Per guidelines, baseline score is 3 when schema coverage is high, which is appropriate here.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It specifies the resource (bet), action (research), and outcome (data pull). The description further distinguishes from siblings by detailing use cases like 'should I bet on X' and showcasing wide scope (crypto, fed, sports, etc.), making it unique among tools like ask_pipeworx or polymarket_arbitrage.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states when to use the tool: 'Use for should I bet on X, what does the data say about Y, or is there edge in Z.' It provides examples of query types (slug, URL, question) and offers extensive post-invocation guidance on interpreting results (resolver contract, parent event, news fields, safety). However, it does not explicitly mention when NOT to use it or directly compare to sibling tools, leaving some implicit inference required.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools overlap significantly in purpose, especially the ask_pipeworx variants (standard, beta, grounded) and deep_research, as well as the polymarket arbitrage/edges/fill_risk/kalshi_spread suite. It would be hard for an agent to reliably choose the correct tool without deep understanding of subtle distinctions.

Naming Consistency3/5

Tool names mostly use snake_case, but there is no consistent prefix or verb pattern. Some names are descriptive phrases (e.g., scream_void_scream, compare_entities) while others are vague (e.g., forget, recall). The mix of 'pipeworx_' prefix on some tools and lack of it on others adds inconsistency.

Tool Count3/5

32 tools is on the high side for a data research server, given the overlapping functionality. Some tools could be merged (e.g., the ask_pipeworx variants, polymarket tools). However, the count is not excessive enough to be unmanageable, and each tool serves a specific niche.

Completeness4/5

The server covers a broad range of data sources and prediction market analysis, with tools for research, comparison, monitoring, and memory. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no tool to update stored memories or manage subscriptions beyond CRUD), but core workflows are well-supported.