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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even with strong read-only annotations, the description adds substantial behavioral context: compatibility codes can be non-empty even when pairs are returned, `null` temporal alignment means 'could not compute' rather than 'aligned', matches are keyword-based and unverified, Kalshi fees are not modeled, and skipped-leg counters expose dropped comparisons. This goes far beyond what annotations alone convey.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long and dense, but it is well-labeled (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, Codes) and nearly every sentence carries necessary caveats or contract details for a complex cross-venue comparison tool. It could be tightened, especially around the code list, but it is structured enough for an agent to parse the key rules.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining response semantics, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, `top_spreads_pp`, `compatibility_warning`, `compatibility_codes[]`, per-entry flags, `temporal_alignment`, `fees_note`, and skipped counters are all defined. An agent has enough context to invoke the tool and interpret results correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds real relational semantics: `topic` auto-fetches matching events, explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side, and both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher with the same disclosures. It also clarifies that all parameters are optional and how mode selection affects output meaning.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the resource (cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same question) and explains the tool's goal, including the signal caveat about equivalent bet shapes. It is not a tautology and adds meaningful scope, though it lacks an explicit imperative verb like 'returns' or 'computes' and does not directly distinguish itself from closely related siblings such as polymarket_arbitrage.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit mode-selection guidance: use `topic` for pre-mapped shortcuts or explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings, and notes both run the same matcher. It also warns that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility warnings and that spreads are gross, not net tradeable edges. It does not name alternative sibling tools or state hard when-not-to-use conditions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools occupy overlapping semantic space: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (currently identical), and ask_pipeworx_grounded are the same router in different modes, while suggest_questions and discover_tools both serve capability discovery. The detailed descriptions help, but an agent could easily select the wrong entry point, especially among the prediction-market and router variants.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names use lowercase snake_case and mostly follow a verb_noun pattern (fetch_schema, resolve_entity, validate_claim), with some domain-prefixed nouns (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending) and a few adjective_noun outliers (recent_alerts, recent_changes). The convention is consistent and predictable, with only minor deviations.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, the set is far too large for a server named Schemastore — only four tools relate to the schema catalog while the rest form a sprawling data-research, prediction-market, memory, and subscription platform. The count is heavy and the scope feels unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The broad data-research and prediction-market domain is well covered — lookup, compare, validate, research, arbitrage, subscriptions, and memory all have lifecycle support — but the server's namesake purpose (schema catalog) is thinly served by four read-only tools with no way to contribute or manage schemas. The domain mismatch makes the surface feel both over- and under-complete.