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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations, the description discloses substantial behavior: it does not model Kalshi's fee schedule, reported spreads are gross rather than net tradeable edges, unmatched legs land in skipped_unclassified, warnings can be non-empty even when pairs are returned, and temporal_alignment=null means unknown rather than aligned. This is far more transparency than the annotations alone provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with clear label segments: TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, and codes. It front-loads the core purpose and mode choice before diving into safety details. There is some redundancy around 'EITHER mode' and repeated warnings, which prevents a perfect score, but no sentence is filler given the absence of an output schema.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema and three optional parameters, the description carries the full burden of explaining response semantics, safety flags, compatibility codes, skipped counters, fee-treatment caveats, and temporal alignment behavior. An agent has enough information to call the tool correctly, interpret its results conservatively, and avoid treating raw spreads as tradeable edges.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful semantic value by explaining the mode relationship: `topic` auto-fetches matching events, explicit tickers override the mapped side, and both modes feed the same token-overlap matcher. It also enumerates all recognized topic shortcuts, supplementing what the schema already lists.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence names a specific operation and resource: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It also flags the scope and the key caveat that the delta is only a real signal when bet shapes are equivalent, which distinguishes this from generic arbitrage or edge tools in the sibling list.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly defines two mutually exclusive calling modes — `topic` for pre-mapped macros and explicit ticker/slug for custom pairings — and says both run the same matcher. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return a compatibility warning and that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable, which is actionable guidance. It does not explicitly contrast with sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters have fuzzy boundaries: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer questions through the same routing layer, while polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, and bet_research all address prediction-market edges. Even with detailed descriptions, an agent can easily select the wrong variant.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are uniformly lowercase snake_case and many follow a verb_noun pattern (list_jobs, search_jobs, resolve_entity, validate_claim), but there are numerous noun-first and adjective-first exceptions (entity_profile, recent_alerts, pipeworx_trending, polymarket_arbitrage) plus bare verbs (remember, forget, recall, subscribe). The pattern is readable but not consistently applied.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the well-scoped range, and the vast majority are not about the server's RemoteOK namesake. The set appears to merge several distinct domains (Pipeworx data research, Polymarket betting, RemoteOK jobs, memory utilities) into one oversized surface, making it feel more like a bundled platform than a focused server.

Completeness4/5

For the dominant Pipeworx/data-research theme, coverage is strong: question answering, grounded verification, entity profiles, comparisons, change feeds, discovery, memory, subscriptions, and citation-based research are all present. The RemoteOK job subset covers list/search/get without obvious dead ends. Minor gaps exist (no direct citation-URI fetcher, no job alert subscriptions), but agents can work around them.