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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as read-only and idempotent, so the bar is lower, but the description adds substantial behavioral context: Kalshi fees are not modeled, matching is by token overlap rather than a shared resolution source, temporal_alignment null has specific meaning, and compatibility fields can be non-empty even when matches exist. No statement contradicts the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but front-loaded with the core purpose and organized under TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, and code labels. Nearly every sentence carries a distinct fact needed to interpret output safely, especially given the absence of an output schema; the code-list section is dense and could be tightened, but it earns its place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description thoroughly documents return contents: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility_codes, temporal_alignment, fees_note, skipped counters, low_confidence_pairs, and per-entry flags. It also covers edge cases such as null alignment, unclassified legs never being paired, and the gross-vs-net fee caveat, leaving no obvious essential gap.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and the schema already documents topic values and override behavior. The description adds meaning by explaining that topic mode auto-fetches the mapped event, explicit mode pairs a custom ticker and slug, and both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher with the same disclosures. This is a modest but real semantic increment over the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly names the resource—the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question—and explains what the tool measures with the 2-25pp participant-pool example. It is slightly weakened by not stating an explicit imperative verb like 'retrieve' or 'compute', and it does not name sibling tools, but the intended function is unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The TWO MODES section gives a clear branch: use `topic` for pre-mapped shortcuts or explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings, and says both modes run the same matcher. However, the description never positions this tool against closely related siblings like `polymarket_arbitrage` or `polymarket_edges`, so alternative-tool selection is left to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route natural-language questions to the same underlying catalog, and polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, and polymarket_kalshi_spread all target prediction-market opportunities. entity_profile, recent_changes, and compare_entities also share company-research territory, making misselection likely without reading long descriptions carefully.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case, but conventions are mixed: some are verb_noun (list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt, resolve_entity), some are noun phrases (entity_profile, rba_cash_rate), and some are brand-prefixed product names (ask_pipeworx, pipeworx_trending). The polymarket_* and rba_* families are internally consistent, but the overall surface has no single predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is a large surface, well above the 25+ threshold that typically becomes unwieldy. While the server covers a broad domain (data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, company research), many tools are niche variants (ask_pipeworx_beta, polymarket_edge_tracker, scan_competitor_ai_presence) that add cognitive load rather than earning their place.

Completeness3/5

Core flows are well covered: memory has remember/recall/forget, subscriptions have subscribe/list/unsubscribe/recent_alerts, and data access has ask_pipeworx plus grounded and research variants. However, the surface is sprawly and uneven — prediction markets get six tools while other domain areas rely on generic routing, and the server's overall purpose is diffuse enough that gaps are hard to assess cleanly.