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Glama

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      -  }
      -]New value: +[
      +  {
      +    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
      +  }
      +]
  3. First observed

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true, and destructiveHint=false, lowering the bar, but the description adds extensive behavioral context beyond these. It discloses safety mechanisms (low-confidence resolution suppresses analysis fields, closed markets return blocking status), wide-spread tradeability notes, cancellation-rule parsing with ev_impact quantification, and news fallback behaviors. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with uppercase section headers (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, etc.) that aid scanning. The first sentence front-loads the core purpose, and every section adds critical operational information for a complex tool. While dense, it earns its length; a 5 would require even tighter prose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given there is no output schema, the description thoroughly explains return shapes (market, analysis, evidence), resolver contract, parent-event extractor, news fields, and safety routes. It covers edge cases like low-confidence matches, closed markets, wide spreads, and cancellation rules. This is a complete operational picture for an agent to invoke and interpret the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds some context for the market parameter (slug, URL, or question text), but this duplicates what the schema already states. It does not add meaningful semantics for depth or include_raw beyond what the schema provides. The description's value lies more in explaining tool behavior than in clarifying parameter meanings.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It clearly differentiates from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges by focusing on a single bet and its evidence packet. It also provides explicit use cases ('should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', 'is there edge in Z'), making the purpose unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly lists when to use the tool ('Use for...') and gives detailed fan-out examples by bet type, which implies appropriate contexts. However, it does not explicitly state when not to use it or name alternative sibling tools, so it stops short of a 5. The clear context and examples still provide strong guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The tool set contains multiple near-duplicate lookups: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded all do the same routing with minor variations, while deep_research and validate_claim also overlap in information retrieval. The two Pixabay search tools are distinct, but the abundance of overlapping data-lookup tools creates real ambiguity.

Naming Consistency2/5

All names use snake_case, but the pattern is inconsistent: some are verb_noun (search_images, validate_claim), others are noun-based (entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback), and variants like ask_pipeworx_beta/grounded introduce ad-hoc suffixing. The naming does not follow a single predictable convention.

Tool Count1/5

With 33 tools, the count is far excessive for a Pixabay server. Only 2 tools (search_images, search_videos) actually relate to Pixabay; the remaining 31 are unrelated Pipeworx data, Polymarket, memory, and subscription tools. The scope is a severe mismatch.

Completeness1/5

For a server named Pixabay, the surface is severely incomplete: only basic image/video search is provided, with no tool for fetching details, downloading, managing collections, or any other lifecycle operation. Meanwhile, the Pipeworx domain is over-covered, but that is irrelevant to the server's stated purpose.